Amcor (AMCR)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$44.48-0.32%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.48. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 AMCR trades at 17× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median, but our blended $30 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our valuation methods disagree and it trades at 5.2× its own p/e history. The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.91/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $12.98 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | low |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $12.28 | — | — | TTM | low |
| graham number | 12M | $38.72 | — | — | TTM | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $94.14 | 23.5 | 4.00 | Mgmt | low |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $57.05 | 14.3 | 6.06 | TTM | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $40.39 | 32.1 | 1.26 | TTM | low |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $62.29 | 23.5 | 2.65 | TTM | low |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $100.33 | 2.1 | 47.84 | TTM | low |
| PEG | 12M | $73.52 | 27.7 | 2.65 | TTM | low |
| residual income | 12M | $26.49 | — | — | TTM | low |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $8.55 | 3.2 | 2.65 | TTM | low |
| triangulated | 12M | $62.55 | 23.5 | 2.66 | Triangulated | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $411.86 | 23.5 | 17.52 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $32.94 | 32.1 | 1.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $108.62 | 23.5 | 4.62 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $116.34 | 2.1 | 55.48 | Analyst | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $128.20 | 27.7 | 4.62 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $14.90 | 3.2 | 4.62 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $28.75 | 32.1 | 0.90 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $126.16 | 23.5 | 5.37 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $135.13 | 2.1 | 64.44 | Analyst | low |
| PEG | 5Y | $148.90 | 27.7 | 5.37 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $17.31 | 3.2 | 5.37 | Analyst | low |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.