Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Apollo Global Management (APO)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$117.27-4.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.70 → 10.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for APO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase annual dividend to $2.25 per share | It aims to increase its dividend by 10% to $2.25 per share. | Intact | annual dividend falls below $2.25 per share in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.56 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.25 per share annual dividend. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260.5625 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
APO is a growth-oriented financial company with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. Its long-term thesis is intact, though a recent drop in company quality and consecutive earnings misses make execution a key watch point.
APO is expensive versus peers, and the expectations gap is elevated, meaning the market appears to assume a strong business outlook. The priced-in fragility assessment is low, but that does not remove the risk that results or guidance fall short of expectations.
Over the multi-year view, assets under management have grown to $1.05 trillion, and management reports progress on its origination priority. The dividend increase has been delivered, while the latest two reported earnings events were misses and company quality fell recently. Near term, guidance cuts or continued misses are key risks; the evidence on management is otherwise mixed.
The thesis hinges on continued growth in assets and origination activity, alongside results that support management’s stated priorities. Near term, a guidance cut or lower interest rates could weigh on the business and sector backdrop. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from financial-sector peers would support sector momentum.
For the 1-3 year view, APO combines strong growth evidence with an intact thesis, but its expensive valuation leaves less room for execution setbacks. Recent earnings misses and weaker company-quality measures make follow-through on guidance and growth priorities important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend Apollo Global Management, Inc. has declared a cash dividend of $0.5625 per share of its Common Stock for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026.” “Dividend Apollo Global Management, Inc. has declared a cash dividend of $0.51 per share of its Common Stock for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025.”
Drive record fee and spread related earnings | Apollo has a solid track record of earnings beats and robust profit margins. | Intact | fee and spread earnings decline below prior peak levels in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable and trusted leadership | A supporting condition in Apollo Global Management's published investment case. The stated target is no material leadership controversies or loss of key executives. | Intact | material leadership scandal or executive departures occur | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Record origination activity exceeding $300 billion | The company targets record origination activity above $300 billion. | Intact | origination activity fails to exceed $300 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Origination reached a new high of $114 billion in the quarter, and over the last twelve months, activity exceeded $350 billion while our clients entrusted us with $270 billion of inflows.” “2025 highlights include record origination activity exceeding $300 billion and inflows of more than $225 billion, driving record fee and spread related earnings.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.66 → $10.62 · observed estimates
$6.27B → $26.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.66 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.66 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.66 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.64 | $26,774,531,848 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.66 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.67 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.67 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.67 | $26,868,682,282 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.67 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.67 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.67 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.67 | $6,273,400,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.67 | $6,273,600,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.67 | $6,273,600,000 | 21 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.69 | $26,913,101,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.71 | $6,335,114,290 | 21 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.71 | $6,335,114,290 | 21 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.71 | $6,335,114,290 | 21 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $10.72 | $6,347,800,000 | 21 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.72 | $6,347,800,000 | 21 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.75 | $6,334,883,330 | 21 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.69 | $26,913,101,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.69 | $26,913,101,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.69 | $26,913,101,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.69 | $26,913,101,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.69 | $26,913,101,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.69 | $26,913,101,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.69 | $26,913,101,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.73 | $26,838,051,027 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.74 | $26,913,989,743 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.73 | $26,894,913,438 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.73 | $26,894,913,438 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.70 | $26,788,551,563 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.70 | $26,788,551,563 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.70 | $26,788,551,563 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.71 | $26,788,551,563 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.70 | $26,783,026,563 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.70 | $26,762,151,563 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.70 | $26,762,151,563 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.70 | $26,762,151,563 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.70 | $26,762,151,563 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.70 | $26,762,151,563 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.70 | $26,762,151,563 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.66 | $26,722,905,291 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.66 | $26,722,905,291 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.65 | $26,802,137,343 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.65 | $26,802,137,343 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.65 | $26,802,137,343 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.65 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.65 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.65 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.63 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.62 | $26,802,137,343 | 12 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.