Apollo Global Management (APO)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$133.67-0.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -19.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Apollo Global Management, Inc. (“Apollo”) issued a summary press release and a detailed earnings presentation announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the summary press release and the earnings presentation are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: A 10% rise in the dividend shows Apollo values its shareholders.
Supportive ifThe board declares a cash dividend of at least $0.6188 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe board does not increase the dividend or announces a lower dividend.
Why it matters: If earnings miss, it means Apollo has problems with its operations and growth.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report shows earnings per share are below what analysts expected.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report beats analyst expectations on earnings per share.
Why it matters: A share buyback could signal confidence in the company's value and improve earnings per share. This can positively affect stock price.
Supportive ifApollo announces a share buyback program. This shows strong cash flow and confidence in growth.
Worry ifThere is no share buyback announcement. This may indicate cash flow problems.
Why it matters: If earnings meet or beat expectations, it shows recovery. This may help investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings results show earnings per share above $0.75.
Worry ifQ3 earnings results fall below $0.60 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $431 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,403 loss on $10,000 · 34.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates and market conditions. This affects Apollo's work.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: Earnings will show if Apollo continues its strong performance and growth trends.
Watch forEarnings per share beats consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls short of consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Growth in fee and spread earnings would indicate strong performance and client demand.
Supportive ifApollo reports fee and spread related earnings growth of at least 10% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifFee and spread related earnings decline or grow less than 5% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in fee-related earnings shows the firm makes steady money.
Supportive ifQ3 fee-related earnings grew over 10% from last year.
Worry ifQ3 fee-related earnings grew below 5% from last year.
Why it matters: Growth in assets under management shows the firm is growing.
Supportive ifQ3 assets under management were more than $1.05 trillion.
Worry ifQ3 assets under management were less than $1 trillion.
Why it matters: An increase signals strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThere will be a dividend increase over 10% for 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of a dividend increase for 2026.