Aptiv (APTV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.95+3.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue near $13.2 billion: FY26 revenue guidance $12.6B-$12.8B vs $13.2B target.
Aptiv grows sales about 5% yearly. Profit stays strong near $1.2 billion. Free cash flow is about $750 million. The spin-off of Versigent is mostly done.
Sales could fall more than 20% next year. Leadership changes may hurt focus. Debt and capital structure might not improve much.
The price is about 18% below our fair value near $73. Analysts expect revenue to drop about 25%. We see better growth ahead.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $650 million in FY26
Breaks if: Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $1.18 billion in 2025-Q4
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis state is stable, though recent performance has shown mixed results.
The market currently prices APTV as expensive compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors are anticipating continued performance but are aware of the company's fragile earnings quality.
Fundamentals may experience volatility due to elevated risks and mixed recent performance. Management's focus on margin expansion and revenue growth is ongoing, but recent company momentum has fallen significantly.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their priorities, particularly the successful spin-off of the Electrical Distribution Systems business. Additionally, external factors like inflation and sector performance will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Weak guidance raises concerns about future performance. Analysts cut revenue growth expectations due to lowered guidance. The auto business faces headwinds, which may impact revenue growth.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $12.8 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, APTV's performance will depend on effective management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.