Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Aptiv (APTV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.85-5.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.56 → 6.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for APTV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow about $750 million | Free cash flow is about $750 million. | Broken | Free cash flow falls below $650 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $33M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$750M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202633,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-sensitive industrial business with a multi-year view tied to growth and margin expansion in its core businesses. The thesis is intact after recent earnings beats and improving momentum, though earnings quality is fragile and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: APTV is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a sizable premium versus peers, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in assessment calls that valuation justified, with only weak execution quality reflected rather than the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near term, recent earnings beats and a rise in adjusted EBITDA margin support the operating picture, while revenue comparisons are clouded by the completed spin-off. Management delivered the spin-off as planned and continues share repurchases, but prior deep misses and recent peer misses remain risks; a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and margin expansion in the remaining core businesses, alongside steady execution after the spin-off. Sector bellwethers GPC, BWA, and ALSN are important signals: continued earnings strength could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, APTV’s operating thesis is intact, with management progress and recent results offset by fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and an expensive overall value assessment. The main swing factors are guidance, core-business execution, and the direction of sector peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Aptiv's published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership disruptions next 4 quarters. |
| Intact |
| Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income near $1.18 billion | Profit stays strong near $1.2 billion. | Broken | Operating income falls below $1.18 billion in 2025-Q4 | Operating income: $281M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.18B operating income. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026281,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $13.2 billion | Profit stays strong near $1.2 billion. | Broken | Revenue falls below $12.8 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $3.199B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$13.2B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20263,199,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.78 → $6.28 · observed estimates
$13.58B → $13.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.78 | $13,578,197,050 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.78 | $13,578,197,050 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.78 | $13,578,197,050 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.77 | $13,585,369,718 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.78 | $13,578,197,050 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.78 | $13,578,197,050 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.78 | $13,578,197,050 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.78 | $13,578,197,050 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.77 | $13,585,369,718 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.78 | $13,578,197,050 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.76 | $13,575,322,050 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.76 | $13,575,322,050 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.76 | $13,575,322,050 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.76 | $13,575,322,050 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.57 | $13,299,716,390 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.57 | $13,299,716,390 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.53 | $13,258,323,720 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.57 | $13,308,474,227 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.53 | $13,267,062,463 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.55 | $13,274,336,770 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.56 | $13,264,833,782 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.56 | $13,267,157,057 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.56 | $13,267,157,057 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.56 | $13,267,157,057 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.56 | $13,267,157,057 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.54 | $13,251,109,939 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.54 | $13,247,762,870 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.53 | $13,247,762,870 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.53 | $13,247,762,870 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.51 | $13,241,327,575 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.51 | $13,241,327,575 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.51 | $13,241,327,575 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.51 | $13,247,364,932 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.51 | $13,247,364,932 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.50 | $13,210,562,870 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.50 | $13,210,562,870 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.50 | $13,210,562,870 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.50 | $13,210,562,870 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.50 | $13,210,562,870 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.49 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.48 | $13,206,251,105 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.28 | $13,269,674,874 | 9 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 10 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.