Aptiv (APTV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.95+3.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APTV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -22.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
APTV — divestiture
Dated 2026-05-05
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, the Company made available certain supplemental investor information on its website at https://ir.aptiv.com , related to the separation of its Electrical Distribution Systems business which completed its spin-off into a new publicly traded company, Versigent PLC, on April 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Negative free cash flow shows cash generation problems. This could affect future investments and share repurchases.
Worry ifFree cash flow turns negative in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow remains positive in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Good results from Versigent could support the spin-off plan and help Aptiv focus.
Supportive ifVersigent shows revenue growth over 10% in its first quarter as a separate company.
Worry ifVersigent reports revenue decline or growth below 5% in its first quarter.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management's promise to give money back to shareholders. This may help keep share prices steady.
Supportive ifManagement plans to announce share buybacks of $250 million or more next quarter.
Worry ifNo share buybacks announced or amounts are much lower.
Why it matters: Less debt means better financial health. It also shows good management of money.
Supportive ifDebt levels reported lower than $4.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifDebt levels reported higher than $4.7 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA margin may mean cost management issues. This could hurt efficiency.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 17.7% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 18.4% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive Free Cash Flow shows better cash generation. It also shows better financial health after the spin-off.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow is positive in Q3. This confirms better cash generation.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow remains negative in Q3, indicating ongoing cash flow challenges.
Why it matters: Strong growth in non-auto markets is important for Aptiv's strategy. It shows the company can adapt and grow beyond traditional car markets.
Supportive ifNon-auto revenue growth reported above 10% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNon-auto revenue growth reported below 10% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower guidance shows problems in the automotive sector. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $3,120 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $3,220 million.
Why it matters: Managing debt is crucial for Aptiv's financial health after the spin-off.
Worry ifAptiv reports a significant reduction in debt levels in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifDebt levels stay the same or go up. This shows poor capital management.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show strong cash flow. It also shows management's commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases go over $325 million in 2026. This confirms strong capital use.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $250 million for the year, indicating weaker cash flow.
Why it matters: News on debt management will show how Aptiv is managing its finances after the spin-off.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan to cut debt levels a lot.
Also watch forNo updates or a vague plan regarding debt management in the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: Slow growth in North America may show bigger market problems for Aptiv.
Worry ifNorth America revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifNorth America revenue growth above 7% year over year.
Why it matters: Watching debt levels shows how well Aptiv manages its money.
Supportive ifDebt levels drop a lot after the tender offer is done.
Worry ifDebt levels remain unchanged or increase after the tender offer.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $442 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,952 loss on $10,000 · 49.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.