Avery Dennison (AVY)

NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-07-08

$164.40-0.99%

Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change

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The thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

The bull case

Avery Dennison grows sales about 4% a year. High-value products make 45% of sales. The company returns $860 million to shareholders yearly. Cost cuts saved $60 million in 2025.

The bear case

Key executives left recently, which may hurt strategy. Sales growth is slow and below targets. Cost savings have not improved profits much.

What's priced in

The price is about 7% below our fair value near $177. Analysts expect about 4% revenue growth. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median.

What has to stay true

Return about $860 million to shareholders annuallyIntact
Capital Allocationsupporting~$860 million returned annually · FY26 (qualitative)
Breaks if: annual shareholder returns fall below $700 million
Are they delivering?Behind this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Maintain disciplined capital allocationCapital allocation
  Continue disciplined capital allocation, balancing organic investments and strategic acquisitions.
  Behind
  Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. The company returned $860 million to shareholders in 2025, balancing organic investments and acquisitions. The trajectory shows consistent execution of the capital allocation strategy.
  Returned $860 million to shareholders in 2025
  CEO/CFO:
Achieve at least $60 million in pre-tax savings from restructuringIntact
Management Executionsupporting>= $60 million pre-tax savings · next 4 quarters (qualitative)
Breaks if: cost savings fall below $40 million pre-tax
Are they delivering?Behind this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Achieve cost reductions through restructuringCost
  Implement restructuring actions to achieve cost reductions and improve efficiency.
  Behind
  Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. The company realized more than $60 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring actions in 2025. Despite these savings, operating income showed limited improvement, increasing from $1,122.1 million in 2024 to $1,123.8 million in 2025. The trajectory shows recurring focus, with narrow delivery so far.
Grow revenue in high-value categories to at least 4% of totalIntact
Revenue Growthprimary>=4% of total revenue · next 4 quarters (consensus)
Breaks if: high-value categories fall below 4% of total revenue
Are they delivering?Behind this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Drive growth in high-value categoriesGrowth
  Focus on expanding high-value categories, including Intelligent Labels, to drive revenue growth.
  Behind
  Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. High-value categories now represent approximately 45% of total revenue, indicating a focus on expanding these segments. Revenue grew from $8.8 billion in 2024 to $8.9 billion in 2025, showing limited progress in overall growth. The trajectory shows recurring focus, with narrow delivery so far.

Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.

Read the full Outlook — the long-form 1–3 year hold read

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.