Casey's (CASY)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
$801.99-0.64%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track CASY free→Casey's keeps opening many new stores, aiming for at least 80 in fiscal 2026. Same-store sales grew over 5.5% in 2026-Q4, beating targets. The company expanded its buyback program to $1 billion, showing strong capital return. Profit growth is steady with recent earnings beats and 14.5% revenue growth last quarter.
The stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 41.9, well above peers. If revenue growth slows below 7% or capital spending rises uncontrollably, margins could suffer. The sector faces headwinds that may pressure demand and store expansion.
The market prices about 10% revenue growth and a stretched valuation 25% above our fair value near $640. Our model is more conservative than the Street, which targets near $900. We see risk if growth or capital discipline falters.
Breaks if: capex exceeds $700 million in fiscal 2026
Maintain capital expenditure discipline with expected property and equipment purchases around $600 million in fiscal 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently guided for approximately $600 million in property and equipment purchases for fiscal 2026. Actual capital expenditures were $655.9 million in fiscal 2026, slightly above guidance but consistent with stated expectations. The trajectory shows disciplined capital allocation.
“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
“The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $600 million.”
Breaks if: same-store sales growth falls below 3.5% in fiscal 2026
Drive inside same-store sales growth in the range of 3.5% to 4.5% for fiscal 2026 through product and service enhancements.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management targeted inside same-store sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026. Actual inside same-store sales grew from 3.3% in 2026-Q2 to 5.5% in 2026-Q4, exceeding the target range. The trajectory is delivering on this growth priority.
“Inside same-store sales were up 5.5% compared to prior year.”
“Inside same-store sales increased 4.0% compared to prior year.”
“Inside same-store sales increased 3.3% compared to prior year.”
“Inside same-store sales increased 4.3% compared to prior year.”
Breaks if: buyback authorization reduced below $800 million
Increase the share repurchase program authorization from $400 million to $1 billion to enhance capital return flexibility.
Newly stated in 2026-Q4. The Board expanded the share repurchase authorization from $400 million to $1 billion in June 2026. The Company repurchased approximately $63 million of shares in 2026-Q4. This expansion provides increased capital allocation flexibility, with initial repurchases underway.
“Board approved expansion of share repurchase authorization to $1 billion.”
Breaks if: store openings fall below 80 in fiscal 2026
Continue store expansion through new builds and acquisitions, targeting at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Guidance shows a target of at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026, with cumulative store openings exceeding 350 by 2026-Q4. The store count increased from 2,904 at 2025-Q4 to 2,944 at 2026-Q4, reflecting ongoing expansion. Management is delivering on this growth priority.
“350+ stores via new builds & acquisitions”
“The Company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026.”
“The Company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026.”
“The Company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026.”
“The Company expects to open at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026.”