CF Industries (CF)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$114.93+1.53%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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CF Industries makes fertilizer and beats earnings with 19% revenue growth. It plans about $1.3 billion in capital spending for 2026. Free cash flow is expected above $2 billion. The stock trades cheap with a PE of 9.95 and a free cash flow yield of 9%.
Falling revenue growth and earnings estimates show demand risks. Profit margins could shrink below the 37.6% guided level. Capital spending may not generate expected returns. The stock faces sector headwinds and fragile quality signals.
The market prices in about -1% revenue growth and a 25% discount to our fair value near $154. Our fair value is 20% above the Street median. We see value but also elevated risk given sector headwinds and fragile quality.
Breaks if: CAPEX falls below $950 million or above $1.5 billion in 2026
CF Industries aims to maintain its capital expenditures guidance for the year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. CAPEX guidance for 2026 is approximately $1.3 billion. Financials show consistent capital allocation focus, but no specific milestone achievement this quarter. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Management projects capital expenditures for full year 2026 will be approximately $1.3 billion.”
“Total capital expenditures expected to be ~$1.3 billion.”
CF Industries is focusing on capital expenditures related to the Blue Point joint venture.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. CF capital expenditures expected to be ~$950M excluding JERA and Mitsui. Financials indicate ongoing investment in Blue Point JV, but no specific milestone achievement this quarter. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“CF capital expenditures expected to be ~$950M excluding the portion funded by JERA and Mitsui.”
“Total capital expenditures expected to be ~$1.3 billion, of which ~$600 million is for the Blue Point JV.”
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $1.8 billion next year
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 35% next year
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~10% next year