CME Group (CME)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$240.75+2.55%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track CME free→Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
CME Group leads global derivatives trading with strong revenue growth. Revenue rose 14% year-over-year to $1.9 billion in Q1 2026. Average daily trading volume grew 22% to 36.2 million contracts, supporting earnings growth. New product launches and market expansion improve long-term growth potential.
CEO succession and regulatory lawsuits create uncertainty. Recent sharp share price drop signals market concerns. Growth could slow if new products face delays or trading volumes decline.
The price is about 7% below our fair value near $259, reflecting roughly 6% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 20% below the Street median, indicating some caution versus consensus optimism.
Breaks if: average daily volume falls below 30 million contracts in Q1 2026
Drive growth in average daily volume across all asset classes and geographies to support revenue and market leadership.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management stated this priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Average daily volume increased from 29.8 million contracts in 2025-Q1 to 36.2 million in 2026-Q1, a 22% rise. This volume growth supports revenue and earnings increases, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Q1 average daily volume up 22% to a record 36.2 million contracts”
“Fourth-quarter 2025 average daily volume was the all-time highest fourth quarter with 27.4 million contracts, up 7%”
“Second-highest third-quarter ADV with broad-based growth”
“Record average daily volume of 30.2 million contracts, up 16%”
“Record average daily volume of 29.8 million contracts, up 16%”
“Record annual average daily volume in 2024”
Breaks if: operating income falls below $1.1 billion in Q1 2026
Sustain and grow operating income through efficient operations and increased trading volumes across asset classes.
Management stated this priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income increased from $1.1 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.3 billion in 2026-Q1. The steady growth in operating income aligns with management's emphasis on sustaining strong profitability, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Operating income of $1.3 billion for the first quarter of 2026”
“Operating income of $1.0 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025”
“Operating income of $973 million for the third quarter of 2025”
“Operating income of $1.1 billion for the second quarter of 2025”
“Operating income of $1.1 billion for the first quarter of 2025”
“Operating income of $947 million for the fourth quarter of 2024”
Breaks if: significant delays or regulatory blocks on new product launches through 2026
Focus on innovation and expanding the range of products and services to help clients manage risk and pursue opportunities globally.
Breaks if: annual revenue falls below $6.0 billion in FY26
Continue to drive record revenue, adjusted operating income, adjusted net income, and adjusted earnings per share through increased client demand and market participation.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.6 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.9 billion in 2026-Q1, a 14% increase. Adjusted net income rose from $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion over the same period, a 20% increase. Management consistently emphasized record financial performance and the trajectory is delivering.
“2026 is off to a record-breaking start as clients...record revenue of $1.9 billion, up 14%”
“Last year, CME Group delivered the best year in our history and our fourth consecutive year of record revenue”
“Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share on par with last year’s exceptionally strong Q3 performance”
“Record revenue of $1.7 billion and record average daily volume of 30.2 million contracts”
“Record revenue of $1.6 billion and record average daily volume of 29.8 million contracts”
“In 2024, CME Group had its best year ever, generating record annual average daily volume, revenue, adjusted operating income, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share”