Coinbase (COIN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$184.64-4.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 38.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
COIN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026 , Coinbase Global, Inc. (the “Company”) published a presentation related to its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (the “Earnings Presentation”). The Company also announced that it will be holding a Q&A session to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Earnings Presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished with t…
Why it matters: Trading volume growth is key for Coinbase's revenue. A drop signals weak demand.
Worry ifQ3 trading volume growth prints below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 trading volume growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Recent earnings misses signal potential ongoing challenges. Q3 results will clarify the trend.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows a net loss greater than $21.4 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings report shows a net profit or a smaller loss than $21.4 million.
Why it matters: Trading volume shows how much Coinbase is active in the market and its money-making chance.
Watch forTotal crypto trading volume increases above $14T in Q3.
Also watch forTotal crypto trading volume decreases below $10T in Q3.
Why it matters: Stablecoin revenue is a major part of Coinbase's income. A slowdown could signal broader issues.
Worry ifStablecoin revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifStablecoin revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$346 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $718 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,357 loss on $10,000 · 63.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Less growth in derivatives trading volume may mean less trading on Coinbase.
Worry ifDerivatives trading volume is still up over 100% from last year.
Less concerning ifDerivatives trading volume growth is now under 100% from last year.
Why it matters: Restructuring affects how well the company runs. Updates can show progress or new issues.
Watch forManagement says they completed the restructuring. It was a success.
Also watch forMore layoffs or problems in operations are reported.
Why it matters: Growth in USDC market cap shows strong demand for stablecoins. This helps Coinbase make more money.
Supportive ifUSDC market cap exceeds $80B, showing strong adoption.
Worry ifUSDC market cap stays below $80B, indicating weak demand.
Why it matters: This initiative is key for Coinbase's growth. Delays could hinder overall performance.
Supportive ifWatch for news about new features or partnerships for the Everything Exchange.
Worry ifNo updates or progress on the Everything Exchange in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Growth in the stablecoin market shows more people are using it. This helps Coinbase.
Supportive ifStablecoin market cap reaches $3T as projected.
Worry ifStablecoin market cap remains below $300B.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Coinbase can recover from the recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of growth or further decline.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows total revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows total revenue decline or flat growth year over year.
Why it matters: Stablecoin revenue is crucial for Coinbase's growth. Strong growth signals effective scaling of their payments infrastructure.
Supportive ifStablecoin revenue exceeds $400 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifStablecoin revenue drops below $300 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New rules can change how much trading happens and who joins the market.
Watch forNew rules are announced that help crypto trading.
Also watch forNew rules are announced that limit crypto trading.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well Coinbase is managing costs and adapting to market changes.
Watch forManagement says the restructuring plan is working. Cost savings are over $50 million.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays or higher costs in the restructuring plan.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income shows the restructuring worked. It also means better efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income is back in the positive.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or drops more.
Why it matters: More DEX trading means people want decentralized finance. This backs Coinbase's plans.
Supportive ifDEX trading volume continues to grow quarter over quarter.
Worry ifDEX trading volume goes down each quarter.
Why it matters: The recent workforce reduction aims to optimize costs. Its effectiveness will show how well Coinbase manages expenses in a tough market.
Watch forOperational costs decrease by 10% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Also watch forOperational costs remain the same or increase in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A drop in transaction revenue may show weak trading activity.
Worry ifIn Q1 2026, transaction revenue was below $420 million.
Less concerning ifTransaction revenue is over $420 million. This shows stronger trading activity.
Why it matters: Q3 earnings will show if revenue growth is still strong or slowing down. A drop below the median growth rate would signal a slowdown.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth drops below the median growth rate of 13%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth stays at or above the median growth rate of 13%.
Why it matters: Growing stablecoin adoption is key for Coinbase's payments infrastructure. A significant increase in USDC held would support this growth.
Supportive ifAverage USDC held in Coinbase products increases to over $15B.
Worry ifAverage USDC held in Coinbase products declines or stays below $15B.
Why it matters: Crypto trading volume is a key revenue driver. A significant drop could indicate market weakness and affect earnings.
Worry ifTotal crypto trading volume drops a lot compared to past quarters.
Less concerning ifTotal crypto trading volume goes up or stays steady compared to past quarters.
Why it matters: Restructuring aims to improve operations for AI. Progress or setbacks will affect efficiency and costs.
Watch forOperating income shows improvement from the -$21.4M in Q1.
Also watch forOperating income is going down or is still negative.