Coinbase (COIN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$136.82-9.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COIN — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-10-02
Chief Accounting Officer — Jennifer Jones: The Chief Accounting Officer is retiring with a planned transition to a successor, which constitutes an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of a senior executive.
Why it matters: Coinbase gained share for four straight quarters and reached 10.7% in Q3. More gains would support the Everything Exchange plan.
Supportive ifQ4 Coinbase crypto trading volume share rises above 10.7%. Spot and derivatives both gain share.
Worry ifQ4 market share falls below 10.7%, or either spot or derivatives loses share.
Why it matters: Paid subscribers fell 24% year over year in Q3. A rebound would show that this service is drawing more customers.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows paid Coinbase One subscribers above the prior year's level.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows paid subscribers down year over year again.
Why it matters: More USDC in Coinbase products can support stablecoin and payment growth. The balance reached $22B in Q3.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows average USDC held in Coinbase products above $22B.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows the average balance at or below $22B.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$314 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $732 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,715 loss on $10,000 · 57.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.