Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Coinbase (COIN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$136.82-9.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.73 → 2.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 22 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 22; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Restructuring expense for AI optimization | A supporting condition in Coinbase's published investment case. The stated target is <=$60 million. | Under Pressure | Restructuring costs exceed $60 million or fail to improve margins | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, crypto-linked financial business with a growth thesis built around trading, stablecoins, and onchain activity. Its thesis state is watch: recent signals improved after earnings, but performance remains weak and execution quality is fragile.
COIN is valued at a 2.68-times premium to peers, with low confidence in that estimate and an expectations gap of 0.15. The valuation tag is stretched, which suggests the market already reflects meaningful expectations for durable growth, though the evidence does not show that the full set of execution and market risks is priced in.
Management is making progress on market share, stablecoin balances, and Base activity, but these gains have not prevented total revenue from being lower in 2026-Q3 than in 2026-Q1. Near-term results remain hard to rely on: the company reported an earnings beat on October 29 after a July miss, while recent performance is still weak and earnings quality is fragile.
The multi-year view depends on whether market-share gains, stablecoin adoption, and onchain activity translate into stronger financial results. Near term, raised guidance after the prior reduction would support the favorable case; further weakness or rate cuts would weigh on the setup. Continued earnings strength among sector peers is another favorable signal to watch.
COIN has tangible progress in several growth priorities, but the financial results have not yet confirmed that progress and the valuation is expensive versus peers. Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on steadier execution and growth that supports the premium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| DeFi trading volume doubled recently. |
| Intact |
| DEX trading volume growth falls below 12% Q/Q next quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Update the financial system by bringing trading, payments, and agents onchain.” “Third, bringing the world onchain through DeFi integrations, scaling the Base App, and driving transactions on Base Chain.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Derivatives trading volume growth | Coinbase is growing its Everything Exchange with 169% more derivatives volume. | Broken | Derivatives trading volume growth falls below 12% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Average USDC Held in Coinbase Products1 and Average USDC Market Capitalization1 9 • New ATH of $22B Average USDC Held in Coinbase Products in Q3, or ~30% of average USDC Market Cap • Reflects full quarter impact of Hyperliquid USDC balance, which arrived in June • Over the past year, we have captured ~50% of all USDC economics; onchain partnerships and deeper product integration driving greater USDC adoption Q3’26 EARNINGS 2026 Priorities Everything Exchange Stablecoins & Payments Onchain 1 32 Enable money to move globally at the speed of the internet.” “Trade every asset class in one place: crypto, equities, prediction markets, commodities, and FX with deep liquidity and capital efficiency.” Revenue was $1.216 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stablecoin revenue | A primary condition in Coinbase's published investment case. The stated target is >=$364 million. | Under Pressure | Stablecoin revenue falls below $300 million next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Average USDC Held in Coinbase Products1 and Average USDC Market Capitalization1 9 • New ATH of $22B Average USDC Held in Coinbase Products in Q3, or ~30% of average USDC Market Cap • Reflects full quarter impact of Hyperliquid USDC balance, which arrived in June • Over the past year, we have captured ~50% of all USDC economics; onchain partnerships and deeper product integration driving greater USDC adoption Q3’26 EARNINGS 2026 Priorities Everything Exchange Stablecoins & Payments Onchain 1 32 Enable money to move globally at the speed of the internet.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.77 → $2.54 · observed estimates
$7.63B → $6.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.77 | $7,625,256,300 | 19 / 28 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.77 | $7,602,863,870 | 19 / 28 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.77 | $7,602,863,870 | 19 / 28 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.77 | $7,602,863,870 | 19 / 28 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.77 | $7,602,863,870 | 19 / 28 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.74 | $7,416,203,484 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.21 | $7,581,078,150 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.21 | $7,577,325,720 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.42 | $7,143,926,789 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.42 | $6,959,492,970 | 29 / 28 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.04 | $6,811,606,810 | 28 / 28 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.04 | $6,811,606,810 | 28 / 28 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.04 | $6,811,613,950 | 28 / 28 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.02 | $6,811,613,950 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.63 | $6,909,096,775 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.67 | $6,595,908,313 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.58 | $6,595,908,313 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.58 | $6,595,908,313 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.58 | $6,595,908,313 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.58 | $6,595,908,313 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.59 | $6,600,046,244 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.58 | $6,594,792,519 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.58 | $6,594,792,519 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.58 | $6,594,792,519 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.59 | $6,594,792,519 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.59 | $6,595,654,588 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.59 | $6,595,654,588 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.59 | $6,595,654,588 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.59 | $6,594,899,435 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.59 | $6,594,899,435 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.59 | $6,594,899,435 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.59 | $6,594,899,435 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.59 | $6,594,899,435 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.59 | $6,594,899,435 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.51 | $6,569,413,209 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.51 | $6,569,413,209 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.52 | $6,573,602,071 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.52 | $6,650,489,462 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.52 | $6,650,489,462 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.52 | $6,650,489,462 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.52 | $6,650,489,462 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.52 | $6,650,489,462 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.57 | $6,671,166,129 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.57 | $6,671,166,129 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.57 | $6,671,166,129 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.57 | $6,671,166,129 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.57 | $6,671,166,129 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.57 | $6,671,166,129 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.57 | $6,671,166,129 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.57 | $6,675,266,129 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.57 | $6,675,266,129 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.57 | $6,675,266,129 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.57 | $6,675,266,129 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.57 | $6,675,266,129 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.57 | $6,675,266,129 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.68 | $6,714,128,512 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.68 | $6,714,128,512 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.71 | $6,714,128,512 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.71 | $6,714,128,512 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.72 | $6,713,752,621 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.72 | $6,713,752,621 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.72 | $6,713,752,621 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.73 | $6,713,752,621 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.73 | $6,713,752,621 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.88 | $6,772,756,864 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.93 | $6,772,756,864 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.93 | $6,772,756,864 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.89 | $6,745,765,304 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.89 | $6,745,765,304 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.89 | $6,745,765,304 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.89 | $6,745,765,304 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.89 | $6,768,608,329 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.86 | $6,769,802,079 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.86 | $6,769,802,079 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.95 | $6,797,868,079 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.95 | $6,797,868,079 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.95 | $6,797,868,079 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.02 | $6,798,282,486 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.07 | $6,816,462,611 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.07 | $6,816,462,611 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.04 | $6,817,337,611 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.04 | $6,817,337,611 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.04 | $6,817,337,611 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.04 | $6,817,337,611 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.08 | $6,849,660,713 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.09 | $6,840,340,736 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.09 | $6,840,803,770 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.86 | $6,621,802,804 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.84 | $6,625,052,283 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.84 | $6,625,052,595 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.60 | $6,499,681,578 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.54 | $6,476,721,530 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.54 | $6,476,721,530 | 22 / 25 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 22 recorded
3 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.