ConocoPhillips (COP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-07-07
$108.39+4.64%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track COP free→ConocoPhillips keeps production near 2.3 million barrels per day. Capital spending stays disciplined around $12 billion a year. The company returns 45% of cash from operations to shareholders. Key projects like Willow and LNG remain on schedule.
Production growth may stall or decline below guidance. Capital spending could rise, hurting free cash flow. Market headwinds and recent selloff pressure earnings and valuation.
The price is about 6% above our fair value near $101, reflecting roughly 9% revenue growth. Our fair value is 31% below the Street median, showing a more cautious outlook on growth and valuation.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $12.5 billion in FY26
Maintain disciplined capital spending with 2026 guidance around $12 to $12.5 billion, reflecting cost control and project timing.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 has consistently been around $12 to $12.5 billion, with quarterly capital spending in 2025-Q2 at $3.3 billion. Management has maintained disciplined capital allocation consistent with stated guidance.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Capital spending for 2026 is expected to be $12 to $12.5 billion.”
“Full-year 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $12 billion.”
“Announced preliminary 2026 guidance, including $12 billion of capital expenditures.”
“Capital expenditures funded $3.3 billion in the quarter.”
“Lowered full-year capital expenditures guidance while maintaining production guidance.”
Breaks if: Return falls below 40% of cash from operations in FY26
Commit to returning 45% of cash from operations to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases annually.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management achieved a 45% return of CFO to shareholders in 2025, distributing $9.0 billion against CFO of $19.9 billion. The objective to return 45% of CFO was reiterated for 2026, showing consistent delivery on capital return commitments.
“Reiterating our objective to return 45% of CFO to shareholders this year.”
“Distributed $9.0 billion, or 45% of CFO, to shareholders.”
“Distributed over $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.3 billion through share repurchases and $1.0 billion through the ordinary dividend.”
“Distributed $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.2 billion through share repurchases and $1.0 billion through the ordinary dividend.”
Breaks if: Production falls below 2.29 MMBOED in FY26
Sustain full-year production guidance around 2.3 MMBOED with modest underlying growth and manage quarterly production within guided ranges.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Full-year production guidance ranged from 2.295 to 2.38 MMBOED across 2024 to 2026, with management expecting 0 to 2% underlying production growth in 2026. Quarterly production has been managed within these guided ranges, showing delivery consistent with stated priorities.
“Full-year production is expected to be 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED.”
“The company’s 2026 production guidance is 2.33 to 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED).”
“Raised full-year 2025 production guidance to 2.375 MMBOED.”
“Full-year production is expected to be 2.35 to 2.37 MMBOED.”
“Maintained full-year production guidance.”
“Full-year 2025 production guidance is 2.34 to 2.38 MMBOED.”
Breaks if: Willow project progress falls below 40% completion by 2026-Q1
Progress key projects including Willow in Alaska and LNG projects in Qatar and the U.S. Gulf Coast, maintaining schedule and managing capital efficiently.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Willow project reached 50% completion by 2026-Q1, and LNG projects including North Field East remain on schedule with startup expected in second half of 2026. Management is delivering progress consistent with stated project timelines.
“Conducted successful Willow winter construction season with project achieving 50% completion.”
“On track to achieve incremental cost reductions and margin enhancements of more than $1 billion by year-end 2026.”
“All LNG projects remain on schedule with first LNG from NFE expected in 2026.”