Domino's (DPZ)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-08
$302.35-3.45%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track DPZ free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Domino's keeps expanding its global store count with 180 net new stores in Q1 2026. The company returns capital with $75 million in share buybacks and a 15% dividend increase to $1.99 per share. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth next year. Profit margins remain stable with a reasonable valuation.
Sales growth is slowing with U.S. same store sales down to 0.9% in Q1 2026 from 3.7% in Q4 2025. Global store openings have sharply declined from 776 in fiscal 2025 to 180 in Q1 2026. Recent earnings have missed estimates and management changes add uncertainty.
The price is about 38% below our fair value near $502, reflecting cautious sentiment. The market expects roughly 5.5% revenue growth, which aligns with consensus but is below Domino's historical pace. Our fair value is 26% above the Street median, suggesting some upside if execution improves.
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $75 million or dividend per share falls below $1.99 in Q1 2026
Continue share repurchase programs and dividend increases to return capital to shareholders while managing leverage ratio.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The company repurchased $75.1 million in shares in 2026-Q1 and $354.7 million in 2025, with a new $1.0 billion authorization in 2026-Q1. Quarterly dividend increased 15% to $1.99 per share in 2026-Q1. Leverage ratio improved from 4.9x in 2025-Q1 to 4.3x in 2026-Q1. Management is delivering disciplined capital allocation with ongoing share repurchases and dividend growth.
“Board of Directors approves additional $1.0 billion share repurchase program.”
“Board of Directors approves 15% increase in quarterly dividend to $1.99 per share.”
“Declared $1.74 per share quarterly dividend and repurchased shares totaling $274.7 million in first three quarters.”
“Declared $1.74 per share quarterly dividend and repurchased shares totaling $200.0 million in first two quarters.”
“Declared $1.74 per share quarterly dividend and repurchased shares totaling $50.0 million in first quarter.”
“Board of Directors approved 15% increase in quarterly dividend to $1.74 per share.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $19.17 in FY 2026
Breaks if: Global net store growth falls below 180 stores in Q1 2026
Continue to grow the global store base with net store openings internationally and in the U.S. to drive retail sales and franchise royalties.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Global net store growth was 776 for fiscal 2025 and slowed to 180 in 2026-Q1; fiscal 2024 net store growth was 775. Management consistently emphasized global store expansion, but recent quarterly growth shows a deceleration, indicating mixed progress.
“Global net store growth of 180, including 19 net store openings in the U.S. and 161 net store openings internationally.”
“Global net store growth of 392 for the fourth quarter; global net store growth of 776 for fiscal 2025.”
“Global net store growth of 214, including 29 net store openings in the U.S. and 185 net store openings internationally.”
“Global net store growth of 178, including 30 net store openings in the U.S. and 148 net store openings internationally.”
“Global net store decline of 8, including 17 net store openings in the U.S. and 25 net store closures internationally.”
“Global net store growth of 364 for the fourth quarter; 775 for fiscal 2024.”
Breaks if: U.S. same store sales growth falls below 0.9% in Q1 2026
Focus on growing market share in the U.S. QSR pizza category through order count growth, value propositions, and innovation.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. U.S. same store sales growth was 3.7% in 2025-Q4 and slowed to 0.9% in 2026-Q1; global net store growth declined from 392 to 180 in the same periods. CEO consistently emphasized U.S. market share growth, but recent sales and store growth show a slowing trajectory, indicating mixed delivery.
“Q1 2026 represented another quarter of positive order count and market share growth for Domino's in the U.S.”
“In our U.S. business, we gained another point of market share, pacing well ahead of the QSR Pizza category.”
“We will continue to win and take QSR pizza market share around the world in 2025 and beyond.”
“Driving meaningful market share gains within the U.S. pizza QSR category.”
“Our Hungry for MORE strategy continues to drive market share growth in QSR Pizza across both our US and international businesses.”
“Leaning into our pillar of Renowned Value helped us once again generate meaningful market share growth in QSR Pizza.”