Darden Restaurants (DRI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$204.47+0.62%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Darden Restaurants grows revenue about 9.5% yearly. Profit per share rose from $9.55 to $10.64 in fiscal 2026. The company returns cash to shareholders with dividends and buybacks. Management is on track with its growth and capital return goals.
Growth at Olive Garden is weakening, which may hurt profit growth. Margin concerns could pressure earnings. Analysts have cut estimates recently, signaling risks to the outlook.
The stock trades about 13% above our fair value near $180. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth, which is slightly below management's 9.5% target. Our fair value is 22% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious view.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $10.0 in FY26
Achieve adjusted diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations in the range of $10.57 to $10.67 for fiscal 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS grew from $9.55 in fiscal 2025 to $10.64 in fiscal 2026, within the guided range of $10.57 to $10.67. Quarterly adjusted EPS showed steady growth, indicating management is delivering on this commitment.
“Adjusted diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.95 for the quarter, an increase of 5.4%.”
“Adjusted diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.08, an increase of 2.5%.”
“Adjusted diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.97, an increase of 12.6%.”
“Adjusted diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.98, an increase of 12.5%.”
Breaks if: Capital expenditures fall outside $700M-$800M range in FY26
Keep total capital spending within the range of $750 million to $775 million for fiscal 2026 to support growth and maintenance.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Capital expenditures were $644.6 million in fiscal 2025 and management guided $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026. The guidance has been consistent, showing management's discipline in capital allocation.
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Total capital spending of $700 to $750 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Total capital spending of $700 to $750 million for fiscal 2026.”
Breaks if: No dividend increase or share repurchase authorization in next 4 quarters
Increase quarterly dividends and authorize substantial share repurchase programs to return capital to shareholders.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Quarterly dividend increased from $1.50 to $1.62 per share (+8%) in 2026-Q3. The company repurchased $138 million in shares in 2026-Q3 and authorized a new $1.5 billion repurchase program. Management is delivering on capital return commitments.
“Declared quarterly cash dividend of $1.62 per share, an 8.0% increase from prior quarter.”
“Declared quarterly cash dividend of $1.50 per share.”
“Declared quarterly cash dividend of $1.50 per share.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~7% in FY26
Continue to grow total sales by about 9.5% in fiscal 2026, driven by same-restaurant sales growth, new restaurant openings, and an extra week of operations.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $12.08 billion in fiscal 2025 to $13.21 billion in fiscal 2026, a 9.4% increase, driven by same-restaurant sales growth around 4.5% and new restaurant openings. Management consistently emphasized this growth target and the trajectory is delivering.
“Total sales increased 5.9% to $3.3 billion, driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.2% and sales from 31 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 7.3% to $3.1 billion, driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.3% and sales from 30 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 10.4% to $3.0 billion, driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.7% and sales from acquisition of 103 Chuy's restaurants and 22 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 10.6% to $3.3 billion driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.6% and sales from acquisition of 103 Chuy's restaurants and 25 net new restaurants.”