Emerson Electric (EMR)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-07
$137.93-2.56%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track EMR free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Emerson grows sales about 3-4% yearly with steady profit. It targets $3.5B to $3.6B free cash flow in 2026. The company plans to return $2.2B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Profit per share is guided near $4.8 for 2026.
Sales growth may slow below 3% due to sector headwinds. Free cash flow progress is slow, with only $694M in Q2. The company’s EPS guidance is soft, risking a miss. Rising debt from recent credit deals could pressure capital returns.
The market prices about 7% revenue growth and values shares near $143, just below our fair value. Our fair value is 5% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism. We see risk in free cash flow delivery and EPS consistency.
Breaks if: Shareholder returns fall below $2.2B in 2026
Emerson plans to return approximately $2.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.79 for FY26
Emerson aims to maintain its EPS guidance range of $4.79 to $4.89 for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Emerson maintains EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89 for 2026. EPS was $1.07 in 2026-Q1, suggesting the company is on track but needs consistent performance to meet the annual target.
“Earnings Per Share $4.79 - $4.89.”
“Maintain EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89 for 2026.”
“Maintain EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89 for 2026.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $3.5B in FY26
Emerson aims to achieve free cash flow between $3.5 billion and $3.6 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Emerson targets $3.5B-$3.6B free cash flow in 2026. Free cash flow was $694M in 2026-Q2, indicating limited progress toward the annual target.
“Free Cash Flow $3.5B - $3.6B.”
“Free Cash Flow $3.5B - $3.6B.”
“Free Cash Flow $3.5B - $3.6B.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26