Expedia Group (EXPE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$269.87+1.17%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Expedia grew gross bookings 13% to $35.5 billion in Q1 2026. Profit margins rose from 9.9% to 15.8%. The company bought back $700 million in shares. AI tools and acquisitions help improve efficiency and growth.
Travel bookings may fall due to Middle East war impact. Guidance was cut despite earnings beats. Shareholder returns are mixed and management is volatile.
The price is about 22% below our fair value near $344. Analysts expect 8.6% revenue growth. Our fair value is 30% above the Street median.
Breaks if: Margin falls below 12% in next four quarters
Focus on expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins through disciplined execution.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased 83% with 591 basis points of margin expansion from 9.9% in 2025-Q1 to 15.8% in 2026-Q1. The trajectory is delivering on the margin expansion focus.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Expanded Adj. EBITDA margins y/y.”
“Expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins y/y.”
“Adjusted EBITDA increased 32% with EBITDA margin of 23.9%.”
“Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion 2%.”
Breaks if: Gross bookings fall below $15 billion in FY26
Drive growth in gross bookings through strategic initiatives.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross bookings grew 13% from $31,451 million in 2025-Q1 to $35,530 million in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows consistent growth in gross bookings, aligning with management's focus.
“Total gross bookings grew 13%.”
“Total gross bookings and revenue both grew 11%.”
“Gross bookings $31,451 million, up 11% y/y.”
“Gross bookings $30,409 million, up 8% y/y.”
Breaks if: Share buybacks drop below $500 million in next four quarters
Enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Repurchased $700 million of shares in the first quarter of 2026. The company continues to enhance shareholder returns through consistent share repurchases, aligning with its capital allocation strategy.
“Repurchased $700 million of shares in the first quarter.”
“Repurchased approximately 9 million shares for $1.7 billion in 2025.”
“Repurchased shares for $1.7 billion in 2025.”