Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$117.09-0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FRT — capital allocation
Dated 2026-08-11
The Notes (as defined below) were sold to the initial purchasers in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). The initial purchasers subsequently resold the Notes to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 144A under the Securities Act. The Issuer relied on these exemptions from registration based in part on re…
Why it matters: Lower growth in FFO may show problems in keeping profits.
Worry ifNareit FFO growth falls below 6% year-over-year in Q2.
Less concerning ifNareit FFO growth exceeds 6% year-over-year in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in sector performance can impact FRT's growth and valuation. It reflects broader market trends.
Watch forThe real estate sector shows signs of revenue growth above 7%.
Also watch forSector revenue growth keeps slowing or stays below 7%.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use show how the company handles its money. This affects growth plans.
Watch forManagement will share a new investment plan. This will happen after the credit agreement.
Also watch forManagement reports more delays or problems in capital use plans.
Why it matters: Lease expirations can hurt revenue if they are not renewed or re-leased well.
Watch forLease expirations are below 10% of total leases.
Also watch forLease expirations are above 15% of total leases.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$67 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $149 loss on $10,000 · 1.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $873 loss on $10,000 · 8.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Tenant problems could affect rental income and financial health.
Worry ifNo major tenant bankruptcies or lease defaults reported in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifOne or more significant tenants file for bankruptcy or default on leases.
Why it matters: Higher rent growth indicates strong demand and pricing power in the retail space.
Supportive ifRent growth on a cash basis exceeds 15% in the next quarter.
Worry ifRent growth on a cash basis falls below 10%.
Why it matters: Interest rates change borrowing costs. They can affect real estate investment returns.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points on July 29.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them on July 29.
Why it matters: High lease signings indicate strong demand for retail space and future revenue growth.
Supportive ifFederal Realty signs more than 100 leases for retail space in Q2.
Worry ifFederal Realty signs fewer than 80 leases for retail space in Q2.
Why it matters: A big acquisition could help Federal Realty grow and improve its portfolio.
Supportive ifThere is news of an acquisition over $50 million.
Worry ifNo major acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Another increase in earnings guidance would show strong confidence in future growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 earnings guidance to more than $4.03 per diluted share.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers 2026 earnings guidance to less than $3.94 per diluted share.
Why it matters: Fixing the earnings miss is key to rebuilding investor trust.
Supportive ifEarnings show a big improvement in the next quarter compared to the last.
Worry ifEarnings continue to decline or remain flat after the miss.
Why it matters: This project could enhance property value and generate new income streams. Delays could hurt growth prospects.
Supportive ifWillow Grove project finishes on time and within budget.
Worry ifWillow Grove project has major delays or costs more than planned.
Why it matters: Raising guidance shows that management believes in future earnings. This could help investors feel better.
Supportive ifManagement shares a new earnings guidance range. This range is higher than before.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the earnings guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance show how much management believes in future earnings and growth.
Supportive ifCore FFO guidance raised above $7.56 per diluted share for 2026.
Worry ifCore FFO guidance cut below $7.48 per diluted share for 2026.
Why it matters: Bankruptcies can lead to more empty spaces and lower rental income. This can hurt financial performance.
Worry ifA major tenant files for bankruptcy. This will affect rental income.
Less concerning ifNo big tenant bankruptcies reported this quarter.
Why it matters: A slowdown in rent growth could indicate weakening demand for retail space. This would affect future income and profitability.
Worry ifAverage rent growth on new leases falls below 10% on a cash basis.
Less concerning ifAverage rent growth on new leases remains above 13% on a cash basis.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong cash flow and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend increases are more than $1.16 per common share.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend remains at or below $1.16 per common share.
Why it matters: If occupancy goes down, it may mean less demand and lower rental income.
Worry ifOccupancy is below 93.8% this quarter.
Less concerning ifOccupancy stays above 93.8% or goes up.
Why it matters: Exceeding this number would show continued strong demand for retail space and support income growth.
Supportive ifQ3 leasing volume surpasses 124 leases signed for 819,273 square feet.
Worry ifQ3 leasing volume falls below 100 leases signed.