Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$113.24-1.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.16 → 3.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective management of capital allocation obligations | A supporting condition in Federal Realty Investment Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain disciplined capital allocation. | Intact | Capital allocation missteps materially increase financial risk | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a real estate income and leasing business with a steady operating thesis, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, and the latest signal has shifted to mildly favorable, though management execution is mixed in some areas.
Valuation appears broadly aligned with expectations: FRT is near its peer valuation, the expectations gap is small, and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility. This suggests the market is not showing a clear valuation disconnect in the evidence, though confidence in the assessment is medium.
Near term, recent performance is strong: third-quarter Core FFO per share grew 5.6% year over year, leasing produced 14% cash rent growth, and 2026 guidance rose during the year. Leasing and guidance delivery support the thesis, while occupancy was flat year over year despite a higher leased rate; earnings surprises have also been erratic, though the stated miss risk is low.
The multi-year view depends on continued leasing volume and rent growth, and on occupancy improving rather than merely leased rates rising. Near term, a reversal of the recent guidance increases would hurt management credibility; Fed rate cuts could support the sector, while weakness at major real estate peers could remove a sector tailwind.
Over the next one to three years, FRT’s operating thesis remains supported by recent growth and repeated guidance increases, but execution on occupancy and the wider real estate backdrop remain key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Federal Realty Investment Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.94 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $3.94 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.74 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.94 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20260.74 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Raised and tightened guidance for both 2026 Nareit FFO and Core FFO per diluted share to $7.54 to $7.58, representing over 7% Core FFO growth at the midpoint year-over-year.” “• Raised and tightened guidance for both 2026 Nareit FFO and Core FFO per diluted share to $7.48 to $7.56, representing 6.5% Core FFO growth at the midpoint year-over-year.” Revenue was $339.024 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth near 6% annually | A primary condition in Federal Realty Investment Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.7% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 5.7% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 5.2% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5.7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20265.204296 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.08 → $3.10 · observed estimates
$1.42B → $1.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.08 | $1,424,942,310 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.08 | $1,424,942,310 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.08 | $1,424,942,310 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.08 | $1,424,942,310 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.04 | $1,423,069,154 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.08 | $1,424,942,310 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.08 | $1,424,942,310 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.08 | $1,424,942,310 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.04 | $1,423,069,154 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.04 | $1,423,419,571 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.08 | $1,424,787,190 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.08 | $1,424,787,190 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.09 | $1,426,095,450 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.09 | $1,419,822,470 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.09 | $1,419,822,470 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.09 | $1,426,095,450 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.04 | $1,424,291,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.05 | $1,423,628,745 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.05 | $1,428,049,540 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.17 | $1,429,491,176 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.17 | $1,429,491,176 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.17 | $1,429,491,176 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.17 | $1,429,433,949 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.17 | $1,429,433,949 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.17 | $1,429,433,949 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.17 | $1,429,433,949 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.17 | $1,429,433,949 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.17 | $1,429,433,949 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.17 | $1,429,433,949 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.08 | $1,429,497,544 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.16 | $1,429,497,544 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.16 | $1,429,479,510 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.15 | $1,424,981,373 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.23 | $1,424,981,373 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.23 | $1,424,981,373 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.23 | $1,426,790,051 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.23 | $1,426,810,088 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.23 | $1,426,810,088 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.23 | $1,426,810,088 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.23 | $1,426,810,088 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.23 | $1,426,810,088 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.23 | $1,417,538,680 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.23 | $1,417,538,680 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.23 | $1,417,538,680 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.23 | $1,417,538,680 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.23 | $1,417,538,680 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.23 | $1,417,538,680 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.23 | $1,417,538,680 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.23 | $1,419,528,589 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.16 | $1,422,443,079 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.16 | $1,422,443,079 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.16 | $1,422,443,079 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.12 | $1,425,751,709 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.12 | $1,425,751,709 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.12 | $1,425,751,709 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.12 | $1,425,751,709 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.12 | $1,425,751,709 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.12 | $1,425,751,709 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.12 | $1,428,506,136 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.12 | $1,428,506,136 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.12 | $1,428,506,136 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.12 | $1,428,506,136 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.12 | $1,428,506,136 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.12 | $1,428,506,136 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.12 | $1,428,506,136 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.12 | $1,428,506,136 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.12 | $1,428,506,136 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.12 | $1,431,055,090 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.12 | $1,431,055,090 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.12 | $1,431,055,090 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.10 | $1,431,361,315 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.10 | $1,431,361,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.10 | $1,431,361,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.10 | $1,431,361,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.10 | $1,431,361,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.10 | $1,431,361,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.10 | $1,431,361,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.10 | $1,433,220,070 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.10 | $1,433,220,070 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.10 | $1,433,220,070 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.10 | $1,434,197,486 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.10 | $1,434,197,486 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.