Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
W. W. Grainger (GWW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1451.39-2.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
51.02 → 51.14 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GWW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $45.25 in 2026 | A primary condition in W. W. Grainger's published investment case. The stated target is >= $44.25. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $44.25 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $12.42 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $44.25. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202612.42 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GWW is a high-quality industrial distributor with a durable-premium profile, supported by recent strong results and steady management execution. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a stretched expectations tag. The expectations gap is modest, but the premium leaves less room for weaker results or a guidance reversal.
Near term, revenue, adjusted earnings, and operating margin have improved, while management has raised 2026 guidance across all three measures. Near-term miss risk is low, but a prior deep miss and the recent CFO transition are risks to monitor; the evidence on earnings quality is neutral.
The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining the sales and margin progress reflected in its higher guidance. A reversal and guidance cut could damage credibility, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as FAST, FERG, and WCC may signal whether the industrial backdrop is strengthening or weakening.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GWW’s thesis rests on continued execution and guidance delivery, balanced against an expensive valuation and a sector headwind. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow remains healthy around $2.3 billion, enabling steady investment and returns. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $2.125 billion in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $333M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.125 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026333,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin at or above 15.6% | Profit margins stay strong near 16%, supported by operating margin guidance of 15.6% to 16.0%. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 15.6% in FY26 | Operating margin: 15.98% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 15.6%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202615.981471 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue near $19.5 billion | Grainger grows revenue about 8.6% a year, reaching nearly $19.5 billion in 2026. | Under Pressure | Annual revenue falls below $19.2 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $5.181B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $19.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20265,181,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$50.43 → $51.14 · observed estimates
$20.80B → $21.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $50.43 | $20,796,313,596 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $50.48 | $20,822,688,210 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $50.43 | $20,796,315,718 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $50.43 | $20,796,315,718 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $50.43 | $20,796,315,718 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $50.43 | $20,796,315,718 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $50.48 | $20,822,688,210 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $50.48 | $20,822,688,210 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $50.43 | $20,796,315,718 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $50.48 | $20,822,688,210 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $50.48 | $20,822,688,210 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $50.48 | $20,822,688,210 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $50.48 | $20,822,688,210 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $50.43 | $20,796,315,718 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $50.83 | $20,973,289,029 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $50.93 | $21,016,565,350 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $50.93 | $21,016,565,350 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $50.93 | $21,016,565,350 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $50.83 | $20,973,289,029 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $51.03 | $21,042,324,280 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-14 | $50.83 | $20,973,289,029 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $50.83 | $20,973,289,029 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $50.83 | $20,973,289,029 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $50.83 | $20,973,289,029 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $50.83 | $20,973,289,029 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $50.83 | $20,973,289,029 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $51.08 | $21,061,064,818 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $51.08 | $21,061,064,818 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $51.08 | $21,061,064,818 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $51.08 | $21,061,064,818 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $51.08 | $21,061,064,818 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $51.08 | $21,068,593,069 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $51.08 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $51.00 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $51.00 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $51.00 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $50.97 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $50.97 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $50.97 | $21,068,584,613 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $51.02 | $21,065,973,933 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $51.02 | $21,065,973,933 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $51.02 | $21,065,973,933 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $51.02 | $21,065,973,933 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $51.02 | $21,065,973,933 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $51.03 | $21,068,536,433 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $51.03 | $21,068,536,433 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $51.03 | $21,068,536,433 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $51.03 | $21,068,536,433 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $51.03 | $21,068,536,433 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $51.03 | $21,068,536,433 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $51.08 | $21,073,286,433 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $51.13 | $21,090,861,433 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $51.13 | $21,091,517,683 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $51.13 | $21,091,517,683 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $51.13 | $21,091,517,683 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $51.13 | $21,091,317,148 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $51.13 | $21,091,317,148 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $51.13 | $21,091,222,335 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $51.13 | $21,091,222,335 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $51.13 | $21,091,222,335 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $51.13 | $21,091,222,335 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $51.13 | $21,091,222,335 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $51.13 | $21,091,222,335 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $51.14 | $21,093,784,835 | 13 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.