W. W. Grainger (GWW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1324.49+0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS near $45.25 in 2026: EPS guidance $45.50 vs $44.25 target.
Grainger grows revenue about 8.6% a year, reaching nearly $19.5 billion in 2026. Profit margins stay strong near 16%, supported by operating margin guidance of 15.6% to 16.0%. EPS rises to about $45.25 in 2026, reflecting solid execution. Free cash flow remains healthy around $2.3 billion, enabling steady investment and returns.
Earnings pressure could reduce EPS growth below guidance. Revenue growth might slow below 8%, hurting profit margins. Rising costs or weaker demand could compress free cash flow and margins.
The market prices in about 9% revenue growth and expects EPS near $45.6 for 2026. Our view aligns with consensus growth but notes the stock trades about 31% above our valuation model, suggesting stretched expectations.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $44.25 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $2.125 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 15.6% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable, long-term thesis focused on a company with strong recent financial performance. GWW has demonstrated consistent revenue and earnings growth, but the current state is cautious due to sector challenges.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly above average compared to peers. There is a low level of fragility, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.
GWW's fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management has consistently raised guidance for revenue, earnings per share, and operating margins. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, which could impact investor confidence.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like FAST, FERG, and WCC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support GWW's growth; conversely, any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat and increased revenue guidance support the read. However, concerns about the EPS guidance raise potential threats to the outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $19.2 billion in FY26
Overall, GWW's strong performance and management execution provide a solid foundation, but external sector factors will be critical to watch. Not investment advice.