W. W. Grainger (GWW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-07-07
$1356.42-1.00%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1356.42. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,356 GWW trades at 33× p/e, in line with its 31× p/e peer median — but our blended $1,038 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $1,125–$1,365. Note: our $1,038 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($1,125–$1,365). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $1,357 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$1125.00 – $1365.00 (median $1275.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-23
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 99% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 16.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $36.67/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $1275.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $625.58 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $602.49 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $291.69 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $1414.55 | 31.3 | 45.25 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $1140.43 | 19.2 | 61.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $779.89 | 26.8 | 29.09 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $1290.13 | 31.3 | 41.27 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $1124.34 | 2.9 | 387.72 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $1807.69 | 43.8 | 41.27 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $224.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $1142.63 | 27.7 | 41.27 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $1288.84 | 31.3 | 41.23 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $2121.93 | 31.3 | 67.88 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $937.64 | 26.8 | 34.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1731.39 | 31.3 | 55.39 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1396.85 | 2.9 | 481.70 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $2425.97 | 43.8 | 55.39 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $1533.44 | 27.7 | 55.39 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $2780.61 | 31.3 | 88.95 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1060.15 | 26.8 | 39.55 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1949.25 | 31.3 | 62.35 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1572.61 | 2.9 | 542.31 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $2731.23 | 43.8 | 62.35 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $1726.39 | 27.7 | 62.35 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.