W. W. Grainger (GWW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1324.49+0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GWW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GWW — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-03
Chief Financial Officer — Deidra C. Merriwether: Ms. Merriwether resigned to pursue another opportunity.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows stronger business growth. It can also make investors more confident.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for the full year 2026. This is higher than current estimates.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers full year 2026 revenue guidance.
Why it matters: Sector performance affects Grainger's growth. A strong sector can boost Grainger's sales.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: If EPS goes above this level, it shows strong profits. It also shows good cost management.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS above $44.25.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS below $44.25.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance would signal strong operational performance. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement increases EPS guidance to more than $46.25.
Worry ifManagement cuts EPS guidance to less than $44.25.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $182 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,335 loss on $10,000 · 13.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sales growth shows strong demand and market position. This affects the overall outlook.
Supportive ifSales growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSales growth falls below 8% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating margin is above 16.2%. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifOperating margin is below 15.8%. This suggests cost pressures may be coming.
Why it matters: Changes in operating margin show how well costs are managed. This affects overall profits.
Watch forOperating margin guidance goes up to over 16.0%.
Also watch forOperating margin guidance goes down to under 15.6%.
Why it matters: If they exceed this guidance, it shows strong earnings growth. This confirms management's positive view.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 diluted EPS guidance to more than $45.50.
Worry ifGuidance remains at or below $45.50.
Why it matters: The CFO change could affect financial plans and investor trust.
Worry ifManagement gives a good update on how the CFO change affects operations.
Less concerning ifThere are negative comments or worries about the CFO change.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with investments and returns for shareholders. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 exceeds $550 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 falls below $550 million.
Why it matters: Sales growth above this level shows strong demand. It also backs up management's positive view.
Supportive ifSales growth exceeds 10.0% in Q3.
Worry ifSales growth remains at or below 10.0%.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact Grainger's cost of capital and demand for products.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates. This shows tighter money policy.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: A smooth transition is key for keeping investor trust and stability.
Watch forNo big delays or problems in Q3 financial reporting after the CFO change.
Also watch forQ3 financial results are delayed or have big errors.
Why it matters: A better operating margin means better cost control and more profit.
Supportive ifOperating margin exceeds 16.2% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 15.8% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A steady leadership team helps keep investor trust and direction.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a new CFO with relevant experience and a strong track record.
Less concerning ifFurther delays in appointing a new CFO or negative news about the transition.