Home Depot (The) (HD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome Improvement RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
$345.21-1.55%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track HD free→Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain operating margin between 12.4% and 12.6%: operating margin 11.9% vs target ~12.5%.
Home Depot leads home improvement retail with $41.8B revenue in Q1 FY26. The company targets 2.5% to 4.5% sales growth and aims to keep profit margins near 12.4% to 12.6%. Recent competitor exits and a new housing bill support growth. Strong operating income of $4.98B in Q1 shows solid execution.
Housing market challenges and legal risks could hurt sales and margins. The recent guidance cut signals pressure on earnings. Revenue growth may slow below 2.5%. Competition and cost pressures could reduce profit margins below target.
The stock trades about 24% above our fair value near $279, reflecting roughly 3% revenue growth. Our fair value is 25% below the Street median, indicating some optimism priced in. We see growth as on track but margin and earnings risks remain.
Breaks if: Significant new competitor gains market share or Home Depot loses share
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 12.4% in FY26
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The company aims to maintain its operating margin within the range of 12.4% to 12.6% for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income was $4.981B in 2026-Q1, reflecting the company's ongoing efforts to maintain the operating margin within the targeted range. However, the margin has been slightly behind the upper target, indicating limited progress.
“Operating margin of approximately 12.4% to 12.6%”
“Operating margin of approximately 12.4% to 12.6%”
“Operating margin of approximately 12.6%”
“Operating margin of approximately 13.0%”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 2.5% in FY26
The company aims to achieve total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue was $41.765B in 2026-Q1, showing growth from $38.198B in 2025-Q4. The company is on track to achieve its sales growth target, indicating delivering progress.
“Total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%”
“Total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%”
“Total sales growth of approximately 3.0%”
“Total sales growth of approximately 2.8%”