Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-07-07
$340.96+0.46%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track HLT free→Hilton grows its hotel units about 6% a year. It plans to return $3.5 billion to shareholders in 2026. Earnings per share are expected to rise to about $8.34 in 2026. The company benefits from strong brand loyalty and global tourism events.
Travel demand may soften due to economic or consumer spending cuts. Competition from Airbnb and other alternatives could hurt growth. Guidance cuts signal risks to earnings momentum.
The price is about 23% above our fair value near $277, reflecting roughly 10% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 20% below the Street median, indicating some optimism in the market that we do not fully share.
Breaks if: capital return falls below $3.0 billion in FY26
Hilton plans to return approximately $3.5 billion in capital to shareholders in 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total capital return year to date through April was $1,084 million, indicating progress towards the $3.5 billion target for 2026. The trajectory shows ongoing commitment to capital return.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Full year 2026 capital return is projected to be approximately $3.5 billion.”
“Full year 2026 capital return is projected to be approximately $3.5 billion.”
“Capital return is projected to be approximately $3.5 billion.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26
Hilton aims to achieve net unit growth between 6.0% and 7.0% in 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net unit growth was 6.3% from March 31, 2025, aligning with the projected range of 6.0% to 7.0% for 2026. The trajectory is delivering as planned.
“CEO: 'We remain confident in our ability to deliver net unit growth of 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent in 2026 and beyond.'”
“Net unit growth for 2026 is expected to be between 6.0% and 7.0%.”
“Net unit growth is projected to be between 6.5 percent and 7.0 percent.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $8.28 in FY26
Breaks if: net unit growth falls below 6.0% in FY26
Hilton aims to achieve net unit growth between 6.0% and 7.0% in 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net unit growth was 6.3% from March 31, 2025, aligning with the projected range of 6.0% to 7.0% for 2026. The trajectory is delivering as planned.
“CEO: 'We remain confident in our ability to deliver net unit growth of 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent in 2026 and beyond.'”
“Net unit growth for 2026 is expected to be between 6.0% and 7.0%.”
“Net unit growth is projected to be between 6.5 percent and 7.0 percent.”