Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HubSpot Inc (HUBS)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$204.96-5.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.87 → 16.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HUBS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain stable management and execution | A supporting condition in HubSpot Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No major management disruptions or negative changes. | Under Pressure | significant management turnover or negative leadership news | 7% workforce cut + CLO departure 7% workforce cut authorized Oct 2026; CLO Erika Fisher resigned Oct 2026; multiple analyst downgrades Nov 2026. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HUBS is a high-growth software business with improving profitability, but it is not yet profitable under the earnings-quality measure in this snapshot. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
HUBS is expensive versus peers, with a 1.1 premium, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of the evidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the premium is aligned with the current setup rather than flagged as unusually exposed.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong: revenue rose 27.6% from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q2, and first-half non-GAAP operating income increased from $229.4 million to $342.1 million. Management’s 2026 revenue and operating-income goals remain on track, and the company has begun executing its new share repurchase program; however, exit-related costs and erratic earnings surprises are risks to monitor.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued delivery against the 2026 growth and profitability goals. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while rate cuts or steadier results from large technology peers could ease pressure on the sector.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HUBS has a strong operating trajectory but a high-risk, expensive setup, with the thesis resting on continued execution and guidance stability. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in HubSpot Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $762M to $766M operating income. |
| Broken |
| operating income falls below $574M in FY26 |
Operating income: $71.892M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $762M to $766M operating income. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202671,892,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $762.0 million to $766.0 million, representing a 21% operating income margin.” “• Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $762.0 million to $766.0 million, representing a 21% operating income margin.” Operating income was $71.892 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve about $3.7B revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in HubSpot Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.7B total revenue. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $3.1B in FY26 | Revenue: $947.565M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.7B total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026947,565,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Full Year 2026: • Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $3.678 billion to $3.686 billion, up 18% year over year on an as-reported basis and 16% in constant currency.” “Full Year 2026: • Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $3.700 billion to $3.708 billion, up 18% year over year on an as-reported basis and 17% in constant currency.” Revenue was $947.565 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.62 → $16.87 · observed estimates
$4.29B → $4.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.62 | $4,286,480,746 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.62 | $4,286,480,746 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.62 | $4,286,480,746 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.62 | $4,286,478,728 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.62 | $4,286,478,728 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.60 | $4,286,213,890 | 34 / 33 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.60 | $4,286,213,890 | 34 / 33 |
| 2026-07-31 | $15.60 | $4,286,213,890 | 34 / 33 |
| 2026-08-01 | $15.59 | $4,286,478,722 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-02 | $15.60 | $4,286,213,890 | 34 / 33 |
| 2026-08-03 | $15.60 | $4,286,213,890 | 34 / 33 |
| 2026-08-04 | $15.60 | $4,286,213,890 | 34 / 33 |
| 2026-08-05 | $15.60 | $4,286,213,890 | 34 / 33 |
| 2026-08-06 | $15.60 | $4,286,213,890 | 34 / 33 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.16 | $4,244,905,672 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.48 | $4,212,037,760 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.54 | $4,206,289,370 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.54 | $4,206,289,370 | 32 / 31 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.56 | $4,206,092,830 | 32 / 32 |
| 2026-08-13 | $16.16 | $4,244,905,672 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-14 | $16.16 | $4,244,905,672 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-15 | $16.16 | $4,244,905,672 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-16 | $16.16 | $4,244,905,672 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | $16.16 | $4,244,905,672 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | $16.16 | $4,244,905,672 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-19 | $16.16 | $4,244,905,672 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.69 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.69 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-26 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-28 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-29 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-08-30 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-08-31 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-09-01 | $16.73 | $4,206,974,685 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.73 | $4,206,975,585 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.73 | $4,206,975,585 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.73 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.73 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.73 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.73 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.73 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.73 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.73 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.76 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.76 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.76 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.76 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.76 | $4,206,033,069 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.76 | $4,206,027,701 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.76 | $4,206,027,701 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.76 | $4,206,027,701 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.76 | $4,206,027,701 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.86 | $4,206,037,356 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.86 | $4,206,037,356 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.87 | $4,206,037,356 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.87 | $4,206,037,356 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.87 | $4,206,037,356 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.88 | $4,205,823,688 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.87 | $4,203,076,312 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.87 | $4,202,925,876 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.88 | $4,201,776,286 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.88 | $4,200,355,913 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.88 | $4,200,355,913 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.88 | $4,200,355,913 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.88 | $4,200,355,913 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.88 | $4,200,355,913 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.88 | $4,200,355,913 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.90 | $4,199,105,913 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.90 | $4,199,105,913 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.90 | $4,199,105,913 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.90 | $4,199,106,945 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.89 | $4,197,612,025 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.87 | $4,197,449,897 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.87 | $4,197,449,897 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.87 | $4,197,449,897 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.87 | $4,197,449,897 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.87 | $4,197,449,897 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.87 | $4,197,449,897 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.87 | $4,197,449,894 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-11-05 | $16.87 | $4,197,449,894 | 19 / 25 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 23 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 15 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.