HubSpot Inc (HUBS)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$247.60-2.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HUBS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HUBS — director transition
Dated 2026-08-05
Director — Gerald ('Jerry') Dischler: The company appointed Gerald Dischler as a new Class I director.
Why it matters: If operating income drops below $762 million, it may show profit problems.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating income was less than $762 million.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating income was more than $766 million.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into revenue and income performance. It can shift investor sentiment.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and income growth that exceeds expectations.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows that revenue and income grew. However, this did not meet expectations.
Why it matters: If revenue falls below $924 million, it may signal slowing growth momentum.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue was less than $924 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue exceeds $925 million.
Why it matters: New AI features may boost customer engagement and draw in new users.
Supportive ifThey announced new AI features that led to more customers.
Worry ifNo new AI features were announced, or customer growth stops.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$310 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $750 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,744 loss on $10,000 · 67.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This will show if HubSpot can maintain its growth momentum. A miss may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported at $897M or lower, indicating growth slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported above $898M, confirming strong demand.
Why it matters: News on the $1.0 billion buyback may show management's trust in the stock.
Supportive ifThey will announce share buybacks over $200 million next quarter.
Worry ifNo updates or share repurchases reported in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Slower customer growth could signal challenges in attracting new clients. This would impact future revenue.
Worry ifCustomer growth was below 16% YoY. This suggests there may be market share issues.
Less concerning ifCustomer growth stayed at or above 16% YoY. This shows a strong market position.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends are key for HubSpot's performance. A drop signals weakening demand.
Worry ifHubSpot's revenue growth drops below its median over the past year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above its median for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong customer growth shows demand for HubSpot's services. It helps meet revenue goals.
Supportive ifCustomer count was at least 310,000. This shows strong market demand.
Worry ifCustomer count was below 310,000. This suggests weaker demand.
Why it matters: Strong customer growth helps HubSpot's market position. It also boosts revenue growth.
Supportive ifCustomer count grows more than 16% YoY, indicating strong demand for services.
Worry ifCustomer growth is below 16% YoY. This raises worries about competition.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may show problems. It could affect future investments.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is above $198 million. This shows strong efficiency.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow is below $198 million. This signals possible challenges.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to hitting the $3.7B revenue target for 2026. Strong growth supports investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth meets or exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: This will indicate if HubSpot's profitability is on track. A miss could raise concerns about cost management.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating income was $173M or less. This shows there may be cost issues.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating income was over $174M. This means there is strong cost control.
Why it matters: Reaching this target is crucial for achieving the $762M-$766M operating income goal for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income reaches or exceeds $200M.
Worry ifQ2 operating income falls below $150M.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to meeting management's $3.7B target for 2026. A drop below 14% signals potential issues.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue was below $924 million. This means growth was less than 14%.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue was above $924 million. This means growth was at or above 14%.
Why it matters: Operating income is important for making money. If it falls below $187 million, it raises concerns.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating income was below $187 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating income was above $187 million for Q3.
Why it matters: A strong buyback program shows confidence in the company. Over $1 billion shows commitment to spending.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases were above $1 billion in the last 24 months.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases were below $1 billion in the last 24 months.