Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-07-07
$31.49-0.82%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track KDP free→Keurig Dr Pepper grows revenue about 16% from 2024 to 2025 and targets $26.15B in 2026 sales. Profit margins remain stable with EPS guidance near $2.2 for mid-2026. The company maintains a $0.23 quarterly dividend and controls costs despite inflation. Integration of JDE Peet's supports global coffee leadership.
Revenue growth could slow below mid-single digits if inflation pressures worsen. Cost efficiency efforts may fail to offset rising expenses. Leadership changes and spinoff risks could disrupt execution. Valuation is below peers but price already reflects 46% revenue growth expectations.
The price is about 9% above our $28.82 fair value and 15% below the Street median target of $34. Analysts expect 46% revenue growth, which is aggressive versus our 5.7% forecasted 3-year growth. Our view is more cautious on growth sustainability.
Breaks if: dividend cut or suspension
Continue capital discipline with focus on dividends, debt management, and strategic investments to support growth and leverage targets.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company maintained a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share through 2025 and 2026. Strategic capital actions include a $7 billion investment to reduce leverage and support acquisition financing. Management is delivering on capital allocation discipline.
“Board declared regular quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share, payable July 10, 2026.”
“Completed private offerings of €3.0 billion euro notes and $2.55 billion USD notes to support acquisition financing.”
“Announced $7 billion strategic investment co-led by Apollo and KKR to reduce projected net leverage at acquisition close.”
“Declared regular quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share, payable July 10, 2026.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.0 in 2026-Q2
Breaks if: integration delays or failure to separate entities by end 2026
Complete acquisition and integration of JDE Peet's to establish a leading global coffee company and separate into two pure-play entities.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The acquisition of JDE Peet’s was completed on April 1, 2026, marking a key milestone in KDP’s transformation agenda. Management has consistently emphasized integration and separation plans, with no reported delays, indicating delivery on this strategic priority.
“Completed acquisition of JDE Peet’s, achieving a significant milestone in our transformation agenda and uniting our complementary organizations under a shared vision for global coffee leadership.”
“We intend to build upon our momentum with the acquisition and integration of JDE Peet’s and progress towards the subsequent separation into two advantaged pure play companies.”
“We have conviction in the merits of the planned transaction and subsequent creation of two winning companies – a global coffee powerhouse and the most agile North American beverage leader.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $25B in FY26
Sustain mid-single-digit constant currency net sales growth driven by volume/mix and price realization across segments.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $15.35 billion in 2024 to $16.6 billion in 2025, consistent with mid-single-digit growth. The 2026 guidance reaffirms net sales of $25.9-$26.4 billion, reflecting continued growth expectations. Management is delivering on this priority with steady revenue increases.
“For 2026, KDP expects net sales of $25.9-$26.4 billion and constant currency Adjusted diluted EPS growth in a low-double-digit range.”
“KDP expects net sales of $25.9-$26.4 billion and constant currency Adjusted diluted EPS growth in a low-double-digit range.”
“We reaffirmed our fiscal 2025 guidance for constant currency net sales growth in a mid-single-digit range.”
“KDP reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance for constant currency net sales growth in a mid-single-digit range.”
“KDP reaffirmed its full year guidance for constant currency net sales growth in a mid-single-digit range.”
“KDP expects net sales growth in a mid-single-digit range for 2025 on a constant currency basis.”