KeyCorp (KEY)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-07-07
$23.39-0.19%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track KEY free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
KeyCorp grows revenue about 10% yearly, showing strong demand. Profit on equity rose to 13%, moving toward a 15% goal. The bank returns capital by buying back $389 million in shares. These show steady growth and good capital use.
Lost deposits and high provisions could hurt earnings and returns. Guidance cuts and management changes add uncertainty. The bank may struggle to reach its 15% return target by 2027.
The price is about 8% above our fair value near $22, reflecting roughly 8% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median, so the market partly prices in strong growth but not overly so.
Breaks if: ROTE fails to progress above 13% in 2026 or falls below 11% next year
Aim to reach a return on tangible common equity of over 15% by the end of 2027.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Return on tangible common equity increased from 11.24% in 2025-Q1 to 13.02% in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the 15%+ target by 2027. The trajectory is positive, aligning with management's goal.
“CEO: 'Return on tangible common equity exceeded 13%, reflecting progress toward our goal of 15%+ by year-end 2027.'”
“CEO: 'Significant progress toward achieving our goal of 15%+ return on tangible common equity by year-end 2027.'”
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $7.5 billion in 2026
Focus on delivering strong organic revenue and earnings growth throughout 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew 10% year-over-year from $1.77B in 2025-Q1 to $1.95B in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the growth target. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
“CEO: 'We remain well positioned to drive strong revenue and earnings growth in 2026.'”
“CEO: 'Confident that we will deliver another year of strong organic revenue and earnings growth.'”
Breaks if: Quarterly share repurchases fall below $300 million consistently
Continue to return capital to shareholders through a structured share repurchase program.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. $389 million of common shares were repurchased in 2026-Q1, demonstrating commitment to capital return. The trajectory aligns with management's stated priority of returning capital through share repurchases.
“CEO: 'We repurchased almost $400 million of common shares in the first quarter.'”
“CEO: 'We remain committed to the return of capital.'”