Kroger (KR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-07-07
$58.53+0.48%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track KR free→Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Kroger keeps growing sales about 2% a year. Profit guidance is steady with adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30 and free cash flow near $2.9 billion. The $1.65 billion Giant Eagle deal boosts market share and growth potential. Capital spending stays strong at about $4 billion to support stores.
Margin pressure and government limits on beef prices could hurt profits. The recent selloff shows investor worries about growth and earnings. Share repurchases may slow after losing sponsorship deals. The company faces risks from rising costs and competitive grocery markets.
The price is about 12% below our fair value near $65 and 8% below the Street median. Analysts expect very high revenue growth, but implied earnings growth is negative. Our view is more cautious on growth and margins.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures fall below $3.8 billion in FY26
Sustain capital expenditures in the range of $3.8 to $4.0 billion for fiscal year 2026 to support growth and store investments.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Kroger consistently reaffirmed capital expenditure guidance of $3.8 to $4.0 billion for 2026. This steady guidance reflects management's commitment to maintaining investment levels to support growth and store improvements.
“Kroger expects capital expenditures of $3.8 to $4.0 billion for 2026.”
“Kroger expects capital expenditures of $3.8 to $4.0 billion for 2026.”
“Kroger expects capital expenditures of $3.8 to $4.0 billion for 2026.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $2.7 billion in FY26
Continue investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth while maintaining investment grade debt rating.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Kroger reaffirmed 2026 guidance including adjusted FIFO operating profit of $5.0 to $5.2 billion, adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30, and free cash flow of $2.7 to $2.9 billion. Management consistently emphasizes investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth, and the financial guidance aligns with this commitment, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”
Breaks if: Acquisition fails to close or significantly dilutes earnings
Breaks if: Profit margins decline significantly due to pricing pressure
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS falls below $5.10 in FY26
Continue investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth while maintaining investment grade debt rating.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Kroger reaffirmed 2026 guidance including adjusted FIFO operating profit of $5.0 to $5.2 billion, adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30, and free cash flow of $2.7 to $2.9 billion. Management consistently emphasizes investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth, and the financial guidance aligns with this commitment, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”
“Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth.”