Marriott International (MAR)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-07-07

$380.75+0.26%

Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change

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The thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

The bull case

Marriott grows rooms by about 5% in 2026. Revenue reaches nearly $6 billion next year. Profit per share rises to about $11.5. The company returns $4.3 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks.

The bear case

Revenue growth is slow and profit margins may shrink. Share buybacks could slow if cash flow weakens. Competition and economic headwinds may pressure room growth.

What's priced in

The price is about 23% above our fair value near $312. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth, close to management's 4.5%-5% rooms growth target. Our fair value is below the Street median, reflecting caution on margin and growth sustainability.

What has to stay true

EPS near $11.51 in 2026Intact
Marginprimary~$11.51 EPS · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: EPS falls below $11.38 in FY26
Achieve 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth in 2026Intact
Revenue Growthprimary4.5% to 5% net rooms growth · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: net rooms growth falls below 4.5% in FY26
Are they delivering?Mixed this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Achieve 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth in 2026Growth
  Marriott targets a net rooms growth of 4.5% to 5% for the year 2026.
  Mixed
  CEO/CFO:“We expect worldwide RevPAR to rise 1.5 to 2.5 percent, net rooms growth of 4.5 to 5 percent.”
Revenue near $5.945 billion in 2026Intact
Revenue Growthprimary~$5.945 billion revenue · FY26 (qualitative)
Breaks if: revenue falls below $5.925 billion in FY26
Are they delivering?Mixed this quarter· 2 tracked commitments
- Achieve 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth in 2026Growth
  Marriott targets a net rooms growth of 4.5% to 5% for the year 2026.
  Mixed
  CEO/CFO:“We expect worldwide RevPAR to rise 1.5 to 2.5 percent, net rooms growth of 4.5 to 5 percent.”
Return $4.3 billion to shareholders in 2026Intact
Capital Allocationsupporting$4.3 billion returned · FY26 (qualitative)
Breaks if: shareholder returns fall below $3.5 billion in FY26
Are they delivering?Mixed this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Return $4.3 billion to shareholders in 2026Capital allocation
  Marriott aims to return $4.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2026.
  Mixed
  CEO/CFO:

Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.

Read the full Outlook — the long-form 1–3 year hold read

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