Mondelez International (MDLZ)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesConfectionersSnapshot 2026-07-07

$60.22+1.77%

Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change

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The thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

The bull case

Mondelez grows revenue about 2% a year as guided. Free cash flow targets about $3 billion in 2026. Profit margins and earnings per share aim to stay flat to up 5%. Leadership changes strengthen the company.

The bear case

Rising cocoa prices may hurt revenue growth. EPS growth is behind targets with recent guidance cuts. Cash flow shows volatility and may miss the $3 billion goal.

What's priced in

The price is about 28% above our fair value near $47. Analysts expect roughly 3% revenue growth, which is slightly above management's 0-2% guidance. Our fair value is well below the Street median, reflecting caution on growth and margins.

What has to stay true

Adjusted EPS growth flat to 5% on constant currency basis for 2026Under Pressure
Revenue Growthprimary0% to 5% YoY growth · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS growth falls below 0% in FY26
Are they delivering?Behind this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5%Growth
  Achieve Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5 percent on a constant currency basis for 2026.
  Behind
  Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted EPS was $0.74 in 2025-Q1 and $0.67 in 2026-Q1, showing a decline in the quarter, while management targets flat to 5% growth for 2026. The trajectory shows limited progress in early 2026, indicating mixed delivery against the stated EPS growth range.
Manage impact of rising cocoa prices on revenue and marginsUnder Pressure
Macro SensitivitysupportingCocoa cost inflation contained to levels not reducing revenue growth below 0% · FY26 (qualitative)
Breaks if: Cocoa price inflation causes revenue growth to fall below 0% in FY26
Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion for 2026Under Pressure
Cash Flowprimary>= $3 billion · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Free Cash Flow falls below $2.5 billion in FY26
Are they delivering?Mixed this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billionCapital allocation
  Target Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion for fiscal year 2026.
  Mixed
  Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free Cash Flow was $0.8B in 2025-Q1 and $0.2B in 2026-Q1 quarterly results, with the company targeting approximately $3B for full year 2026. Management consistently reiterates this target, but quarterly cash flow shows some volatility, indicating mixed progress toward the annual goal.
Organic Net Revenue growth of flat to 2% for 2026Intact
Revenue Growthprimary0% to 2% YoY growth · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Organic Net Revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Organic Net Revenue growth of flat to 2%Growth
  Maintain Organic Net Revenue growth in the range of flat to 2 percent for 2026.
  On Track
  Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $9.31B in 2025-Q1 to $10.08B in 2026-Q1, with organic net revenue growth reaffirmed at flat to 2% for 2026. Management consistently emphasizes this growth range, and the trajectory shows steady top-line growth aligned with this guidance.

Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.

Read the full Outlook — the long-form 1–3 year hold read

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