Monster Beverage (MNST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.82-0.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain profit margins near 34%: TTM operating margin 29.2% vs 34% target; Q2 FY26 29.2% vs 30% trip.
Monster Beverage grows sales about 12% a year, led by international markets. Profit margins stay strong near current levels. The company returns capital with $100 million in share repurchases in 2026-Q1. Innovation and new products support growth.
Revenue growth slows below 7% as international expansion stalls. Profit margins shrink from current levels near 34%. Share repurchases slow or stop, reducing capital return. Innovation pipeline fails to deliver new hits.
The stock price is about 29% above our fair value near $75 and 21% below the Street median near $95. Analysts expect about 12% revenue growth. Our view is more cautious on valuation but aligned on growth.
Breaks if: Innovation pipeline fails to produce meaningful new products next year
Breaks if: International sales growth falls below 7% YoY next year
Profit margin falls below 30% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on innovation and international expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting concerns about execution quality but not fully accounting for the company's potential. The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight premium indicating some expectations for growth.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by management's consistent emphasis on innovation and international sales growth. Recent results show strong revenue growth, although there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings estimates due to industry trends.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on innovation. Additionally, sector performance, particularly from major peers, and macroeconomic conditions like inflation will play critical roles in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Management reported strong Q2 results, with net sales up 21.6% to $2.36 billion. Energy drink case sales increased significantly, indicating continued strong sales momentum. The company is also discussing pricing actions in the U.S. for Q4, which could support margins.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Repurchases fall below $50 million in 2026-Q1
Overall, the outlook for MNST remains stable, with strong management execution and solid growth potential. Not investment advice.