Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Monster Beverage (MNST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$48.75+3.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.31 → 1.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MNST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Innovation pipeline supports growth | A supporting condition in Monster Beverage's published investment case. The stated target is Sustained product innovation advancing growth. | Intact | Innovation pipeline fails to produce meaningful new products next year | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We remain focused on the growth of our existing core offerings as well as the continued introduction of product innovations, which remain central to our long-term growth strategy,” Mr. Schlosberg added.” “Innovation remains central to our long-term growth strategy, and we remain excited about our planned new product offerings for the remainder of 2026 and beyond,” Mr. Schlosberg added.” Revenue was $2.537 billion in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented consumer staples business with a durable premium valuation, supported by recent strong financial performance and a sector tailwind. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and earnings quality is neutral.
MNST is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence labels that premium as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is negative, so the current setup does not point to a clear cushion if execution weakens.
Over the multi-year view, continued product innovation and international expansion are supported by management priorities that have remained consistent and by rising sales. Near term, financial performance is strong overall, but the company recently missed a quarter and has a history of a deep miss, while the next guidance update remains a key risk.
The thesis depends on management sustaining innovation and international growth while maintaining execution. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
For the next one to three years, the long-term thesis remains intact, supported by business momentum and growth priorities, but the premium valuation leaves execution and economic conditions important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
International sales grow at least 10% annually | Monster Beverage grows sales about 12% a year, led by international markets. | Intact | International sales growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““ We are continuing to launch our affordable energy brands, Predator® and Fury®, in a number of markets worldwide.” “We are exploring opportunities for distribution of our alcohol products in certain international jurisdictions,” Sacks said.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain profit margins near 34% | Profit margins stay strong near current levels. | Broken | Profit margin falls below 30% next year | Operating margin: 29.18% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~34% profit margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202629.180291 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Repurchase at least $100 million in shares in 2026-Q1 | The company returns capital with $100 million in share repurchases in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Repurchases fall below $50 million in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.60 → $1.31 · observed estimates
$10.43B → $10.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.60 | $10,434,807,310 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.58 | $10,404,900,670 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.58 | $10,404,900,670 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.60 | $10,443,216,945 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.60 | $10,443,216,945 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.58 | $10,404,900,670 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.58 | $10,404,900,670 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.58 | $10,401,013,990 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.60 | $10,443,216,945 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.58 | $10,401,013,990 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.58 | $10,401,013,990 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.60 | $10,438,566,945 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.60 | $10,438,566,945 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.60 | $10,438,566,945 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.60 | $10,438,561,945 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.58 | $10,492,201,460 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.60 | $10,438,561,945 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.58 | $10,492,201,460 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.60 | $10,438,561,945 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.30 | $10,572,014,610 | 13 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.60 | $10,438,561,945 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.60 | $10,438,561,945 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.60 | $10,438,561,945 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.60 | $10,438,561,945 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.60 | $10,438,561,945 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.60 | $10,438,561,945 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.31 | $10,661,619,690 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.31 | $10,661,619,690 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.31 | $10,661,619,690 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.31 | $10,661,619,690 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.31 | $10,661,619,690 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.31 | $10,661,619,690 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.31 | $10,674,792,472 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.31 | $10,674,792,472 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.31 | $10,684,268,663 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.31 | $10,684,268,663 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.31 | $10,684,268,663 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.31 | $10,684,268,663 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.31 | $10,684,268,663 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.31 | $10,684,267,087 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.31 | $10,684,265,568 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.31 | $10,684,265,568 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.31 | $10,684,265,568 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.31 | $10,684,265,568 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.31 | $10,684,265,568 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.31 | $10,684,265,568 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.31 | $10,684,265,568 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.31 | $10,686,189,239 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.31 | $10,686,825,653 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.31 | $10,686,825,653 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.31 | $10,686,825,653 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.31 | $10,689,401,420 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.31 | $10,689,401,420 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.31 | $10,689,401,420 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.31 | $10,689,401,420 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.31 | $10,689,401,420 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.31 | $10,689,401,420 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.31 | $10,697,276,692 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.31 | $10,697,276,692 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.31 | $10,695,728,915 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.31 | $10,695,728,915 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.31 | $10,695,728,915 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.31 | $10,695,728,915 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.31 | $10,695,728,915 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.31 | $10,697,423,043 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.31 | $10,697,423,043 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.31 | $10,697,423,043 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.31 | $10,697,423,043 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.31 | $10,700,501,061 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.31 | $10,700,501,061 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.31 | $10,700,501,061 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.31 | $10,700,501,061 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.31 | $10,700,501,061 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.31 | $10,700,501,061 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.31 | $10,700,501,061 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.31 | $10,700,501,061 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.31 | $10,700,501,061 | 12 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.