Monster Beverage (MNST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-07-08
$95.15-1.83%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $95.15. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $95 the market pays 44× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 43× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $76 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $86–$105. Note: our $76 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($86–$105). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $107 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$86.00 – $105.00 (median $97.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-08
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 200% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 18.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.79/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2010-Q2, 2010-Q3, 2011-Q1, 2011-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $97.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $89.35 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $91.42 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $20.62 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $23.01 | 19.0 | 1.21 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $47.64 | 16.6 | 2.75 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $41.83 | 20.0 | 2.10 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $40.69 | 19.0 | 2.14 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $15.05 | 1.7 | 8.90 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $91.05 | 42.5 | 2.14 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $14.35 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $91.67 | 42.8 | 2.14 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $40.69 | 19.0 | 2.14 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $32.97 | 19.0 | 1.73 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $63.62 | 20.0 | 3.19 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $57.81 | 19.0 | 3.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $21.06 | 1.7 | 12.45 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $129.34 | 42.5 | 3.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $130.22 | 42.8 | 3.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $41.90 | 19.0 | 2.20 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $84.14 | 20.0 | 4.22 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $71.99 | 19.0 | 3.79 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $26.23 | 1.7 | 15.50 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $161.07 | 42.5 | 3.79 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $162.17 | 42.8 | 3.79 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.