Northrop Grumman (NOC)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$514.98-2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put NOC beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS near $27.65 in FY26: EPS $27.65 vs $27.4 target.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 6% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskNorthrop Grumman's growth in missile defense contracts has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 5% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. It trades at 18× P/E versus a peer median of 30×. The price reflects less growth than forecasted, indicating modest expectations. A specific risk is the 16% probability of a miss in the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades. This read is provisional; the thesis is on watch due to pressure on earnings per share.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. NOC is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 23 analysts currently covering NOC (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for NOC in the last 4 months.
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Compare NOC with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put NOC next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Manage cost growth and invest in missile prime business
New contract supports missile prime business investment objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $514.98
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $514.98.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Manage cost growth and invest in missile prime business
Contract win supports missile business investment objective.
Advances: Reaffirm and raise 2026 financial guidance for sales and EPS
Raised guidance supports growth and financial targets.
Advances: Expand production capacity and accelerate key programs (e.g., B-21, Sentinel)
Contract supports expansion of production capacity and key programs.
Advances: Manage cost growth and invest in missile prime business
Securing missile defense share supports cost management and growth.
Advances: Expand production capacity and accelerate key programs (e.g., B-21, Sentinel)
Contract supports production capacity expansion objective.
Advances: Expand production capacity and accelerate key programs (e.g., B-21, Sentinel)
Contract supports expansion of production capacity and key programs.
Advances: Reaffirm and raise 2026 financial guidance for sales and EPS
Earnings call indicates significant profit growth, boosting guidance.
