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NOC

Northrop Grumman

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-05-08

$549.52-0.50%
Close 2026-05-08 · 1-day change
The bottom line

As of May 8, 2026, NOC has a composite score of 22.2, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a high confidence level of 80.0 and strengths in quality (70.9) and valuation (73.1), which is labeled as "inexpensive." The analysis is provisional and reflects various macroeconomic factors as top drivers, including macro growth, labor, rates, and inflation.

Composite +22as of 2026-05-08

Price

Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.

Close 2026-05-08
Daily closes. Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event

Factor signals

Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.

L1

Thesis

is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?
F1 · Recent financial performance
weak
Bottom 10% of industrials cohort
Why this rank
  • Direction share
    1.00
  • Slope (norm)
    -0.47
  • Bonus
    0.00
Operating income, last 4 quarters ($M)
12426329890
F2 · Value
cheap
Cheapest 20% of industrials cohort
Why this rank
Price
$549.52
TTM EPS
$28.28
Earnings yield
5.1%
P/E (TTM)
19.4

Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1

F3 · Earnings quality
fragile
Bottom 20% cash conversion in industrials cohort
Why this rank
TTM NI ($M)
4,105
TTM CFO ($M)
3,438
CFO/NI
0.84
L2

Watch

has something changed worth re-reading?
F4 · Management stability
stable
Top 30% activity in industrials cohort· see deep-dive ↓
neutral
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
neutral17 analysts, 50% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions

EPS estimate $6.85 → $6.82 (-0.4% / 30d). 4 raised, 8 cut, 17 covering analysts.

Rating actions

0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.

Price target activity

3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.6% above current price.

Material events

0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.

F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
2

Stated priorities

Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.

3

Guidance track record

Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.

L3

Position context

how violent might the path be while I hold it?
Risk profile · realized
backward-looking
moderateworst 12m loss −28%, typical day ±1.2%
Why this risk level

Recent vol — 30d annualized 28%; 252d 26%.

Drawdown — Max 1y −28%. Bad day move −2%.

Beta to sector ETF (XLI) 0.48 over 1y.

Liquidity — score 100/100.

Sub-scores — vol 57/100, drawdown 43/100, beta 48/100, earnings vol .

Sector regime
headwind-7.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d

via XLI

Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.

AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifier
HeatingManiaSquallCrisisEarnings →Mood ↑
HeatingE +0.13 · M +0.71
Single-axisCHASEz +2.97+1.285d

Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.

Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.

3

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

  1. No material changes since the prior snapshot.

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

as of 2026-05-08

4

Management scorecard

How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.

Composite54.6 / 100
Capital allocation56
Earnings discipline49
Margin discipline63
Balance sheet58
Guidance credibility
Post-call reaction43
as of 2026-05-08
4

What management is focused on

Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.

No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.

5

How this stock is priced

Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.

Compared to peers
80higher = cheaper

Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.

Compared to its own history
76higher = cheaper

Cheaper than its own typical valuation.

P/E
18.9x
EV/EBITDA
15.0x
FCF yield
4.2%

P/E over the last 5 years

71 monthly points
inexpensiveas of 2026-05-08
7

How this compares

A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.

StockCompositeValuationRisk
NOC
Northrop Grumman
+22inexpensivemoderate
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
+13expensivemoderate
GE
GE Aerospace
+11expensivemoderate
GEV
GE Vernova
+10fullmoderate
RTX
RTX Corporation
+20fairmoderate
8

Risk — how this stock moves

What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.

A typical day
How much price usually moves either way.
1.2%
A bad day (95th %ile)
A rough but not unusual down day.
-2.1%
Worst 12-month loss
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
-28.4%
Earnings-day move
How much price usually moves on earnings day.
moderateas of 2026-05-08
9

What could change this view

Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.

Upside triggers
  • If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
  • If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2025-11-06)+4.0 pts
Downside triggers
  • If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2025-11-06)-8.0 pts
  • If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
  • If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
10

Material updates

Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.

  1. 2026-04-2117d agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026 , Northrop Grumman Corporation issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, under the heading “Northrop Grumman Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results.” The earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.

    earnings preannouncementneutralscore 44
  2. 2026-02-132mo agoItem 5.02

    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On February 12, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Northrop Grumman Corporation (the "Company") elected Admiral Christopher W. Grady to the Board effective that date. Admiral Grady most recently served as the 12th Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the United States' second highest-ranking military officer, from December 202…

    executive changeneutralscore 8
  3. 2026-01-273mo agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026 , Northrop Grumman Corporation issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, under the heading “Northrop Grumman Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Results.” The earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.

    earnings preannouncementneutralscore 6
11

Score history

The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.

60 snapshots
Data freshness · As of 2026-05-08 · Macro 2026-05-08 · Sector 2026-05-07 · Fundamentals 2026-04-21 · Price 2026-05-07 · Generated 2026-05-08 · Spec 2.3

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.