Northrop Grumman (NOC)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$525.35-4.53%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NOC — officer change
Dated 2026-08-21
CEO — Kathy J. Warden: The filing discloses a one-time performance-based equity grant to the CEO, which is a compensatory arrangement rather than a change in management status or departure.
Why it matters: The company links growth to higher production and program ramps. Strong 2027 sales guidance would support that plan.
Supportive ifIn the 2027 outlook, management guides to sales growth above 2026's $43.75 billion to $44.25 billion range.
Worry ifManagement guides 2027 sales at or below the 2026 range, or cites slower B-21 or Sentinel ramps.
Why it matters: Sentinel is growing, but Defense Systems' margin fell in Q3. Lower costs or better margins would show the ramp is going well.
Watch forDefense Systems margin rises above Q3's 10.8%, with Sentinel sales still growing year over year.
Also watch forDefense Systems margin falls below 10.8%, or Sentinel sales decline year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted free cash flow was $965 million through nine months. The full-year guide is $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion, so Q4 cash flow is key.
Watch forFull-year adjusted free cash flow lands within or above the $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion guide.
Also watch forFull-year adjusted free cash flow lands below $3.1 billion.
Why it matters: Backlog rose from $95.6 billion in Q1 to $109.6 billion in Q3. More growth would support future sales, while a drop would weaken that signal.
Watch forThe next reported backlog is above $109.6 billion.
Also watch forThe next reported backlog is below $109.6 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $273 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,835 loss on $10,000 · 38.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A launch anomaly led to a $71 million charge in Q1. Another charge would hurt Space Systems results; no new charge would ease that concern.
Watch forA later earnings release reports no new GEM 63XL charge tied to a launch anomaly and no new anomaly.
Also watch forA later earnings release reports another GEM 63XL charge tied to a launch anomaly.