Northrop Grumman (NOC)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$514.98-2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
NOC — officer change
Dated 2026-08-21
CEO — Kathy J. Warden: The filing discloses a one-time performance-based equity grant to the CEO, which is a compensatory arrangement rather than a change in management status or departure.
Why it matters: If sector growth picks up, it could benefit Northrop Grumman's performance. It shows a healthier industrial environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to 6% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 6%.
Why it matters: An update to sales guidance shows management's confidence in future demand. It shows how well the company adapts to market changes.
Supportive ifManagement expects sales to be over $44.25 billion in 2026.
Worry ifSales guidance stays the same or goes down from $43.75 billion.
Why it matters: Updates on B-21 production show if Northrop Grumman can meet demand. This can help sales.
Supportive ifA new agreement with the U.S. Air Force to further increase B-21 production capacity.
Worry ifNo new agreements or delays in B-21 production updates.
Why it matters: Exceeding $20 billion in net awards would show strong demand and growth in new contracts. It reflects the company's competitive position.
Supportive ifNet awards exceed $20 billion in Q3.
Worry ifNet awards fall below $15 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue. It also shows demand for Northrop Grumman's services.
Supportive ifBacklog reported above $96 billion in the next earnings release.
Worry ifBacklog falls below $95 billion. This may mean problems in getting new contracts.
Why it matters: Stable operating income is important for Northrop Grumman's long-term success. It shows the company can manage costs and keep making money.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 is above $900 million. This shows stability.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $800 million. This may show potential problems.
Why it matters: Steady operating income shows good cost management. It can make investors feel better about earnings.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 stays steady or gets better compared to Q1.
Worry ifOperating income drops a lot compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A better operating income margin means better cost management. It shows how well the company controls expenses.
Supportive ifOperating income margin rate goes above 10.1% in Q3.
Worry ifThe operating income margin rate is now below 10.1%.
Why it matters: Sales growth below 5% would signal a slowdown in demand for Northrop Grumman's products.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Why it matters: An operating margin under 10% may mean there are issues with costs and profits.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 10% for Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating margin was above 10% for Q3.
Why it matters: Backlog growth below $20 billion may show weaker demand for Northrop Grumman's contracts.
Worry ifBacklog growth reported below $20 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth exceeds $20 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong cash flow and support for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at or above $2.31.
Worry ifDividend per share falls below $2.31.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $258 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,542 loss on $10,000 · 35.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.