Northrop Grumman (NOC)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$514.98-2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS near $27.65 in FY26: FY26 EPS guidance $27.65 vs $27.4 target.
Northrop Grumman keeps winning big defense contracts, like a $312 million Navy deal. Sales are expected near $44 billion in 2026 with profit per share around $27.65. The company maintains a stable dividend of $2.31 per share. Operating income shows stability near $989 million, supporting steady cash flow.
Margins may come under pressure, as recent guidance cuts suggest. Growth could slow below analyst expectations of 7% revenue rise. Supply chain issues and softer missile test progress may hurt future earnings and operating income.
The market price is about 11% below our fair value estimate near $632, reflecting cautious views on growth and margins. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance, but margin pressures and recent guidance cuts are partly priced in.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $2.31
Breaks if: EPS falls below $27.4 per share in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income declines significantly below $989 million quarterly average
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady income through dividends. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's commitment to financial targets and a stable dividend policy.
The market prices NOC as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some fragility is already accounted for. This suggests that the stock is not overly optimistic about future performance.
Fundamentals may remain stable in the near term, as management has shown a commitment to improving operating income and maintaining dividends. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent mixed financial performance and a low probability of missing earnings expectations.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to reaffirm or raise financial guidance in upcoming calls, as well as the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Positive or negative shifts in these companies could significantly impact NOC's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports our view. Northrop Grumman reaffirmed and raised its 2026 financial guidance for sales and EPS. The company won a significant missile defense contract, which aids its business. No new threats have emerged to weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $43.5 billion in FY26
Overall, NOC's performance will depend on management execution and sector dynamics over the next few years. Not investment advice.