Northrop Grumman (NOC)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$514.98-2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOC
How strong the business is — where it ranks within its sector on capital efficiency and cash generation, and how well management has been executing.
How this business ranks within industrials on a research-validated quality screen. As of 2026-09-04.
The screen ranks NOC against its sector on four durable signals: share dilution, return on capital, free-cash-flow yield, and FCF margin. Historically the highest-quality names tended toward better typical outcomes and fewer bad years over multi-year holds (strongest at three years, modest at one), and that pattern showed up even before the price moved. It characterizes business quality, not price direction.
Each leg is a sector-relative percentile (higher is better); 4 of 4 legs were available for this name. The composite is built from these four; the raw value follows each percentile for context.
A forward quality tilt, not a price prediction, and context for your own research rather than a recommendation. Not investment advice.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=9249).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has consistently reaffirmed and raised 2026 financial guidance for sales, segment operating income, MTM-adjusted EPS, and free cash flow.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised 2026 sales guidance from $43.5B-$44.0B to $43.75B-$44.25B and MTM-adjusted EPS guidance from $27.40-$27.90 to $28.60-$29.10 between 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Free cash flow guidance remains at $3.1B-$3.5B. The trajectory matches management's stated confidence and delivery on growth.
“Company increases 2026 financial guidance for sales and MTM-adjusted EPS; reaffirms guidance for operating income and adjusted free cash flow”
“Company reaffirms 2026 financial guidance for sales, segment operating income, MTM-adjusted EPS, and free cash flow”
“2026 Guidance ($ in millions, except per share amounts) As of 1/27/2026 Sales $43,500 $44,000; MTM-adjusted EPS $27.40 $27.90; Free cash flow $3,100 $3,500”
Management has consistently maintained or increased the dividend per share, reaffirming a commitment to returning cash to shareholders.
Management has stated this priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $2.06 in 2025-Q1 to $2.47 in 2026-Q2, showing a maintained or growing dividend policy. This reflects delivering on capital return commitments.
Management has emphasized maintaining stable operating income and improving operating margin rates across business segments.
Management stated this priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income improved from $573M in 2025-Q1 to $1.4B in 2025-Q4, with operating margin rates increasing from 6.1% to 13.8% in 2025-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering on operating income stability and margin improvement.
Management has highlighted agreements to increase B-21 production capacity and accelerate Sentinel initial operating capability, supporting growth and backlog expansion.
Stated in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management highlighted agreements to increase B-21 production capacity and accelerate Sentinel capability in 2026-Q1, with backlog growing from $96B to $105B by 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering on program expansion and backlog growth.
Management has acknowledged investments in missile prime business and managing cost growth on programs like AARGM-ER and SiAW, impacting operating income.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management disclosed investments in missile prime business leading to a $68 million unfavorable EAC adjustment on SiAW and higher costs on AARGM-ER. This reflects active cost management and investment in key programs.
“Investing in missile prime business; higher costs on AARGM-ER and SiAW resulted in $68M unfavorable EAC adjustment”
Over the trailing year it converted -0.85x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=4997).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity (low R² over the window).
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2546).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-09-04.
“Dividend per share: $2.47”
“Dividend per share: $2.31”
“Dividend per share: $2.31”
“Dividend per share: $2.31”
“Dividend per share: $2.31”
“Dividend per share: $2.06”
“Operating income $1.1B; operating margin rate 10.1%”
“Operating income $989M; operating margin rate 10.0%”
“Operating income $1.3B; operating margin rate 10.9%”
“Operating income $1.1B; operating margin rate 11.9%”
“Operating income $1.2B; operating margin rate 13.8%”
“Operating income $573M; operating margin rate 6.1%”
“Reached agreements with the U.S. Air Force to increase B-21 production capacity and accelerate Sentinel initial operating capability”
“Sentinel program continues to ramp; higher volume on B-21”