Northrop Grumman (NOC)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$514.98-2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOC
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $515 NOC trades at 18× p/e, below its 30× p/e peer median. Our $580 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $500–$745. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $620.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $638.14 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1204.24 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $194.04 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$500.00 – $745.00 (median $620.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-08-05
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $284.88 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $1092.48 | 27.0 | 43.68 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $777.81 | 30.4 | 25.60 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $832.45 | 27.8 | 29.96 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $992.47 | 3.3 | 301.21 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $367.38 | 12.8 | 28.72 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $203.44 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $539.86 | 18.8 | 28.72 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $916.18 | 30.3 | 30.21 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $1182.95 | 30.4 | 38.94 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $883.79 | 27.8 | 31.81 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1138.56 | 3.3 | 345.54 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $406.93 | 12.8 | 31.81 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $597.98 | 18.8 | 31.81 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1564.45 | 30.4 | 51.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $928.99 | 27.8 | 33.44 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1196.78 | 3.3 | 363.21 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $427.74 | 12.8 | 33.44 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $628.56 | 18.8 | 33.44 | Analyst | high |