Northrop Grumman (NOC)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-07
$548.85+0.20%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $548.85. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $549 NOC trades at 19× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $620 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $580–$745. Not investment advice.
$580.00 – $745.00 (median $660.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-26
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $27.37/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $660.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1285.73 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1320.96 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $202.58 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $280.86 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $1055.13 | 38.2 | 27.65 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $923.98 | 25.5 | 39.77 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $792.89 | 34.2 | 23.19 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $1113.90 | 38.2 | 29.19 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $991.85 | 3.3 | 297.31 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $163.47 | 5.6 | 29.19 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $203.74 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $546.49 | 18.7 | 29.19 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $1163.91 | 38.2 | 30.50 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $1127.54 | 38.2 | 29.55 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $1205.88 | 34.2 | 35.27 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1220.96 | 38.2 | 32.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1163.41 | 3.3 | 348.74 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $179.18 | 5.6 | 32.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $599.02 | 18.7 | 32.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1178.55 | 38.2 | 30.88 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1594.78 | 34.2 | 46.65 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1315.40 | 38.2 | 34.47 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1253.40 | 3.3 | 375.71 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $193.04 | 5.6 | 34.47 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $645.36 | 18.7 | 34.47 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.