Northern Trust (NTRS)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-07-07

$181.39+0.14%

Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change

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The thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

The bull case

Northern Trust grows revenue 14% yearly. EPS rose 43% last year. Noninterest income grew 33%. The company focuses on its main priorities.

The bear case

Growth could slow below 9% revenue yearly. EPS gains may stall. Competition or regulation could hurt profits.

What's priced in

The price is about 23% above our fair value near $148. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median of $179.

What has to stay true

EPS grows strongly, near $11.87 in FY26Intact
Management Executionprimary>=11.87 USD per share · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: EPS falls below $11.87 in FY26
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Maintain strong EPS growthGrowth
  Continue to focus on maintaining strong earnings per share growth.
  On Track
  Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $1.90 in 2025-Q1 to $2.71 in 2026-Q1, a 43% rise, demonstrating strong EPS growth. The trajectory aligns with management's focus on maintaining EPS growth.
  CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Earnings per share rose 43% year-over-year.'”
  Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-09-30
  Show history (3)
Noninterest income grows at least 9% yearlyIntact
Revenue Growthsupporting>=9% YoY · next 4 quarters (consensus)
Breaks if: Noninterest income growth falls below 9% next year
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Enhance noninterest incomeGrowth
  Focus on enhancing noninterest income through diversified revenue streams.
  On Track
  Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Noninterest income increased from $158.1M in 2025-Q1 to $210.2M in 2026-Q1, a 33% rise, indicating progress in enhancing noninterest income. The trajectory is delivering as intended.
Revenue grows at least 9% yearlyIntact
Revenue Growthprimary>=9% YoY · next 4 quarters (consensus)
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 9% next year
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Focus on One Northern Trust strategic prioritiesGrowth
  Continue executing the One Northern Trust strategic priorities to drive growth and efficiency.
  On Track
  Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased 14% year-over-year from $1,945.6M in 2025-Q1 to $2,213.2M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in executing strategic priorities. The trajectory is delivering growth as planned.

Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.

Read the full Outlook — the long-form 1–3 year hold read

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.