O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$86.65+2.86%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track ORLY free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Track ORLY free→O'Reilly Automotive grows revenue about 10% yearly, hitting $18.85 billion in 2026. Profit margins stay strong near 19.55%. Free cash flow is solid at about $1.85 billion. The company is buying back shares, supporting shareholder value.
Revenue growth could slow below 7%, hurting earnings. Profit margins may compress below 19%. Capital spending might rise, reducing free cash flow. The stock trades expensive with fragile quality signals.
The price is about 6% above our fair value near $82, below the Street median of $110. Analysts expect 30% revenue growth, which is optimistic versus our model's 2% implied growth. We see risk in margin and growth sustainability.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $1.5 billion in FY26
Manage capital expenditures within the $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion range for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures were $244 million in 2026-Q1, indicating control within the annual guidance range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion. The trajectory is consistent with the stated capex control priority.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Capital expenditures $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.”
“Capital expenditures $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26
Aim to achieve free cash flow between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow was $785 million in 2026-Q1, progressing towards the annual target of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion. The trajectory is delivering on the free cash flow generation priority.
“Free cash flow $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion.”
“Free cash flow $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion.”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 18.5% in FY26
Ensure operating income as a percentage of sales remains within the 19.3% to 19.8% range for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $741 million in 2025-Q1 to $842 million in 2026-Q1, aligning with the operating margin guidance of 19.3% to 19.8%. The trajectory is delivering on maintaining the margin within the guided range.
“Operating income as a percentage of sales 19.3% to 19.8%.”
“Operating income as a percentage of sales 19.2% to 19.7%.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $17.7 billion in FY26
Focus on reaching the revenue guidance of $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $4.14 billion in 2025-Q1 to $4.56 billion in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 2026 revenue target of $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion. The trajectory is delivering against the stated guidance.
“The Company’s updated guidance for selected full-year 2026 financial data: Total revenue $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion.”
“The Company’s guidance for selected full-year 2026 financial data: [...] Total revenue $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion.”