Paychex (PAYX)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-07
$108.12+2.59%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track PAYX free→NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Track PAYX free→Paychex grows adjusted EPS by about 10% to 11% in fiscal 2026. Revenue rises 5% to 6% with a strong profit margin near 44%. The Paycor acquisition and AI platform boost growth and competitive edge. The company actively buys back shares, returning capital to shareholders.
Revenue growth slows below 5% and profit margins shrink below 40%. Integration of Paycor and AI efforts fail to deliver expected gains. Share buybacks slow or stop, signaling capital allocation issues.
The market expects about 7% revenue growth and prices the stock roughly 10% below our fair value estimate. Our view is slightly more optimistic on growth and margins than consensus.
Breaks if: adjusted diluted EPS growth falls below 9% in FY26
Continue to increase adjusted diluted earnings per share by 10% to 11% for fiscal 2026, reflecting strong revenue growth and operational execution.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 was reiterated in the range of 9% to 11% growth, consistent with prior quarters. This matches the trajectory of adjusted diluted EPS growth, which increased 11% in fiscal 2026-Q4 and 15% in Q3, indicating management is delivering on this priority.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Adjusted diluted earnings per share (1) is now anticipated to grow in the range of 10% to 11%.”
“Adjusted diluted earnings per share (1) is now anticipated to grow in the range of 9% to 11%.”
“Adjusted diluted earnings per share (1) is anticipated to grow in the range of 8.5% to 10.5%.”
“Adjusted diluted earnings per share (1) is now anticipated to grow in the range of 9% to 11%.”
Breaks if: operating margin falls below 40% in FY27
Breaks if: Paycor contribution to revenue growth falls below 15%
Complete integration of Paycor to enhance upmarket presence and accelerate AI-driven innovation in HCM solutions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Paycor acquisition closed in April 2025 and contributed approximately 17% to 19% of Management Solutions revenue growth year-over-year in subsequent quarters. Management has consistently emphasized integration and AI innovation, with revenue growth reflecting delivery on this priority.
“Successful integration of Paycor to advance our upmarket expansion and AI innovation.”
“Integration of Paycor contributed approximately 17% to Management Solutions revenue growth.”
“Completed the acquisition of Paycor and made significant progress on integration.”
“Entered into definitive agreement to acquire Paycor with expected close in April 2025.”
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27
Continue to increase adjusted diluted earnings per share by 10% to 11% for fiscal 2026, reflecting strong revenue growth and operational execution.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 was reiterated in the range of 9% to 11% growth, consistent with prior quarters. This matches the trajectory of adjusted diluted EPS growth, which increased 11% in fiscal 2026-Q4 and 15% in Q3, indicating management is delivering on this priority.
“Adjusted diluted earnings per share (1) is now anticipated to grow in the range of 10% to 11%.”
“Adjusted diluted earnings per share (1) is now anticipated to grow in the range of 9% to 11%.”
“Adjusted diluted earnings per share (1) is anticipated to grow in the range of 8.5% to 10.5%.”
“Adjusted diluted earnings per share (1) is now anticipated to grow in the range of 9% to 11%.”
Continue to grow Professional Employer Organization and Insurance Solutions revenue by 6% to 8% annually.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue grew 6% to 9% year-over-year in recent quarters, consistent with management's guidance of 6% to 8% growth for fiscal 2026. This indicates management is delivering on this growth target.
Breaks if: share repurchases fall below $600 million in FY26
Execute a share repurchase program authorized up to $1 billion to return capital to shareholders.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management announced a $1 billion share repurchase authorization in January 2026, replacing the prior $400 million program. Fiscal 2026 saw $611 million spent on repurchases, showing active execution on this priority.
“Returned $2.2 Billion to Shareholders in Fiscal 2026 including $611 million in share repurchases.”
“Repurchased 2.9 million shares of our common stock for $361.6 million.”
“Repurchased 828,855 shares of our common stock for $104.0 million.”
“PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue is anticipated to grow in the range of 6.0% to 8.0%.”
“PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue is anticipated to grow in the range of 6.0% to 8.0%.”
“PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue is anticipated to grow in the range of 6.0% to 8.0%.”
“PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue is anticipated to grow in the range of 6.0% to 8.0%.”