Progressive Corporation (PGR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-07-07
$234.37+1.17%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track PGR free→Progressive grows net premiums written about 6% yearly. Profit margins stay near 86%. The company buys back shares and pays steady dividends. Leadership changes are planned with named successors.
Leadership changes may disrupt strategy and hurt results. Profit margins could worsen from 86%. Revenue growth might slow below 4%.
The price is about 39% below our fair value near $384. Analysts expect about 4% revenue growth, which is lower than our view.
Breaks if: Dividend cut or buyback suspension next year
Continue disciplined capital allocation with share repurchase authorization renewal and regular dividend payments.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 6 quarters. The Board renewed share repurchase authorization for up to 25 million shares in 2026-Q1 and declared consistent quarterly dividends of $0.10 per share from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q1. This shows ongoing capital allocation discipline.
Breaks if: Combined ratio rises above 89% next year
Focus on managing loss and expense ratios to sustain combined ratio near or below 87%, supporting underwriting profitability.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Combined ratio remained stable around 86-87% from 2025 through 2026-Q1, with 86.4% in 2026-Q1 and 87.4% full year 2024. Loss and expense ratios have been managed consistently, indicating delivery on underwriting discipline.
Breaks if: Leadership changes cause major disruption or resignations
Execute planned leadership transitions including CFO and Personal Lines President retirements with named successors.
Breaks if: Net premiums growth falls below ~4% YoY next year
Continue to increase net premiums written and earned across Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property segments to drive revenue growth.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net premiums written grew from $22.2B in 2025-Q1 to $23.6B in 2026-Q1 (6% growth year-to-date), and full year 2024 net premiums written grew 21% to $74.4B. The trajectory shows consistent delivery of growth in premiums written and earned.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Board renewed share repurchase authorization and declared $0.10 dividend”
“Declared quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share”
“Declared quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share”
“Combined ratio 86.4% year-to-date”
“Combined ratio 87.4% full year”
“Combined ratio 87.3% year-to-date”
“Combined ratio 86.1% year-to-date”
“Combined ratio 86.0% year-to-date”
“Combined ratio 88.8% full year”
“Net premiums written $23,641 million, up 6% year-to-date”
“Net premiums written $83,174 million, up 21% full year”
“Net premiums written $63,666 million, up 13% year-to-date”
“Net premiums written $42,282 million, up 15% year-to-date”
“Net premiums written $22,206 million, up 17% year-to-date”
“Net premiums written $74,424 million, up 21% full year”