Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-07-08
$224.53-3.39%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track PKG free→Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Packaging Corp grows revenue about 9% yearly. EPS guidance for 2026-Q2 is $2.33 per share. Operating income rose to $251.3M in 2026-Q1. Cash from operations remains strong at $329.3M despite some decline.
EPS guidance is soft at $2.33 for 2026-Q2. Cash from operations dropped $117M from prior quarter. The sector faces headwinds that could pressure margins and growth.
The price is about 12% above our fair value near $207. Analysts expect 9% revenue growth. Our fair value is 18% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $329M in any quarter
Ensure strong cash flow from operations to support business activities and investments.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operations was $329.3M in 2026-Q1, down from $446.6M in 2025-Q4. While cash flow remains strong, the decrease indicates a need for continued focus on managing operational cash effectively.
“CEO: 'We achieved strong cash flow from operations, supporting our business activities.'”
“Cash from operations remains a focus to support our investments.”
“We continue to manage cash flow effectively.”
“Strong cash flow from operations is critical for our strategy.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.33 per share in 2026-Q2
Continue to meet or exceed EPS guidance as a key financial target.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026-Q2 is $2.33 per share. The company has consistently met or exceeded its EPS guidance, with 2026-Q1 EPS at $2.40, above the $2.20 guidance. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
“CEO: 'We expect second quarter earnings of $2.33 per share, excluding special items.'”
“PCA continues to forecast earnings of $2.40 per share, excluding special items, for 4Q 2025.”
“We expect third quarter earnings of $2.80 per share, excluding special items.”
“Considering these items, we expect fourth quarter earnings of $2.40 per share, excluding special items.”
“Considering these items, we expect first quarter earnings of $2.20 per share.”
“We expect fourth quarter earnings of $2.40 per share, excluding special items.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $168.5M (2025-Q4 level) in any quarter
Maintain stable operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income was $251.3M in 2026-Q1, up from $168.5M in 2025-Q4. The company has shown progress in stabilizing operating income through efficiency improvements, despite cost pressures.
“CEO: 'Our containerboard mills performed exceptionally well both in terms of production and efficiency.'”
“Focus on maintaining stable operating income despite higher freight costs.”
“We are managing costs to stabilize operating income.”
“Operating income stability remains a priority amid cost pressures.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year