Philip Morris International (PM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
$182.53-1.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
PM — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-09
Group Chief Financial Officer — Emmanuel Babeau: Mr. Babeau is transitioning to a Strategic Advisor role with a separation agreement that includes severance and equity vesting.
Why it matters: The impairment could affect PMI's financial health and investor perception. Clarity on this is crucial.
Worry ifManagement gives a clear update on how the RBH impairment affects earnings.
Less concerning ifThere are no new updates or bad news about the RBH impairment.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plans may change how the company performs and operates.
Watch forThe new CFO shares plans that match growth goals.
Also watch forThe new CFO does not announce any major plans.
Why it matters: Higher EPS growth shows strong profits and good cost control.
Supportive ifEPS growth is over 9.5% compared to last year, not counting currency.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth is less than 7.5% year over year excluding currency.
Why it matters: The FDA's authorization could boost ZYN's market presence. Lack of sales growth could indicate market challenges.
Supportive ifZYN products grew in sales after getting FDA approval.
Worry ifZYN products had flat or lower sales after FDA approval.
Why it matters: Growth in ZYN shipments signals strong demand and supports overall revenue growth for PMI.
Supportive ifZYN nicotine pouch shipments are over 780 million cans. This shows strong market demand.
Worry ifZYN shipments fall below 780 million cans, suggesting weaker demand.
Why it matters: The impairment may impact PMI's finances and how the market views it.
Worry ifThere was a non-cash impairment charge of about $500 million confirmed.
Less concerning ifNo impairment charge was reported or it was lower than expected.
Why it matters: Higher EPS growth shows strong profits and good cost control. This can help investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth exceeds 10.2% year over year.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth is below 7.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth shows that PMI is gaining traction in its smoke-free products. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifQ2 organic revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 organic revenue growth remains below 16.7% year over year.
Why it matters: Massimo Andolina is in charge of PMI's financial plans. Changes can impact investor feelings.
Watch forAndolina shares a new plan that supports smoke-free growth.
Also watch forAndolina's plan shows a move away from smoke-free goals.
Why it matters: Gains in market share show success in the heat-not-burn category. This drives revenue.
Supportive ifIQOS market share goes up by more than 1% in key markets. This shows strong acceptance.
Worry ifIQOS market share stays flat or goes down in key markets. This suggests competitive challenges.
Why it matters: The expansion of the ZYN portfolio is crucial for growth in the U.S. market. Success here could enhance overall performance.
Supportive ifZYN sales volume increases by more than 5% in Q3 following the new product launches.
Worry ifZYN sales volume declines or remains flat in Q3.
Why it matters: New debt could change PMI's financial flexibility. It may also affect costs.
Worry ifInterest expenses rise a lot because of new debt.
Less concerning ifInterest expenses stay the same or go down even with new debt.
Why it matters: Changes in market share show PMI's position in the growing smoke-free market.
Watch forPMI's smoke-free market share increases by more than 1% in key markets.
Also watch forPMI's smoke-free market share decreases by more than 1% in key markets.
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial for PMI's financial health. A miss could indicate weakening demand.
Worry ifNet revenues grow by at least 5% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet revenues grow less than 5% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows smart investment in smoke-free products. It helps growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending was between $1.4 and $1.6 billion.
Worry ifCapital spending was below $1.4 billion or above $1.6 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in rules can affect how PMI markets smoke-free products. It is important to watch this for risks.
Worry ifNew rules are announced that limit marketing of smoke-free products.
Less concerning ifNo new changes in rules for smoke-free products are reported.
Why it matters: Good FDA decisions could boost smoke-free product sales. They would also support the strategy.
Supportive ifFDA allows more smoke-free products.
Worry ifThe FDA says no to smoke-free product applications.
Why it matters: Strong growth in smoke-free products is key for PMI's long-term strategy and financial health.
Supportive ifSmoke-free product revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSmoke-free product revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: EPS growth reflects the company's financial health and ability to meet growth targets.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS exceeds $2.20 in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS falls below $2.00 in Q3.
Why it matters: Growing the ZYN portfolio is key to gaining market share in nicotine pouches.
Supportive ifPMI successfully launches new ZYN variants in Q3.
Worry ifNo new ZYN variants are launched in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and affect money made.
Watch forNew CFO Massimo Andolina has a clear plan that helps the company grow.
Also watch forA CFO change can cause unclear or bad guidance on money made.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $299 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,853 loss on $10,000 · 18.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.