Philip Morris International (PM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-05
$201.50-4.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PM — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-09
Group Chief Financial Officer — Emmanuel Babeau: Mr. Babeau is transitioning to a Strategic Advisor role with a separation agreement that includes severance and equity vesting.
Why it matters: PM is spending more to expand ZYN and change its can size. Shipment growth can show whether buyers accept the new offer.
Watch forU.S. ZYN shipments grow year over year after the 20-pouch cans reach most of the flagship range.
Also watch forU.S. ZYN shipments decline year over year after the can change, or reported results show weak demand during the transition.
Why it matters: Q3 organic revenue growth was 7.1%, above the stated full-year range. Further results test whether growth holds as one-time benefits fade.
Watch forA coming quarter reports organic net revenue growth of at least 5%.
Also watch forA coming quarter reports organic net revenue growth below 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $299 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,853 loss on $10,000 · 18.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.