Philip Morris International (PM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
$182.53-1.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Adjusted diluted EPS growth excluding currency: EPS growth ~4.7% vs 9% target (guidance $7.27 vs prior $6.94).
Philip Morris grows smoke-free products fast, with 43% of revenue in Q1 2026. Adjusted EPS rose 16% in Q1 and full-year growth is guided at 9% to 11%. Capital spending stays disciplined at $1.5 billion, focused on smoke-free business.
Growth in smoke-free products may slow or face regulatory hurdles. Capital allocation could be pressured by impairments. EPS growth may fall short of 9% to 11% guidance amid currency or market headwinds.
The price is about 13% above our fair value near $165, reflecting roughly 7% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is below the Street median, indicating some caution versus more optimistic views.
Breaks if: adjusted diluted EPS growth excluding currency falls below 7% in 2026-FY
Target adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% to 11% excluding currency effects, supported by operational improvements and product mix.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder focused on smoke-free products. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation with a slight expectations gap. PM's valuation is at a premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth is already expected.
Fundamentals are likely to continue showing growth, as management is on track with its targets for revenue and earnings per share. However, there is a moderate risk due to the fragile earnings quality and recent volatility in management.
The thesis hinges on whether PM can maintain its growth trajectory and navigate potential headwinds in the sector. Key factors include guidance updates and performance from sector peers, which could influence market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this view. A new contract manufacturing agreement with Altria may improve operational efficiency. This deal is expected to streamline costs for PM. There are no new threats identified at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management stated this priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. The company forecasted adjusted diluted EPS excluding currency to increase between 7.5% and 9.5% in 2026, consistent with prior guidance of 9% to 11% growth excluding currency in 2025. Adjusted diluted EPS excluding currency grew from $3.60 in the first half of 2025 to $3.94 in the first half of 2026, showing progress aligned with the target. The trajectory is delivering consistent EPS growth excluding currency.
“Adjusted diluted EPS excluding currency projected to increase 7.5% to 9.5% in 2026 forecast.”
“Adjusted diluted EPS excluding currency projected to increase 7.5% to 9.5% in 2026 forecast.”
“Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9.5% to 11.5% excluding currency stated in 2025 guidance.”
“Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% to 11% excluding currency reiterated.”
“Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% to 11% excluding currency stated.”
“Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% to 11% excluding currency forecasted.”
Breaks if: CAPEX falls outside $1.4 to $1.6 billion range or shifts away from smoke-free focus in 2026-FY
Sustain disciplined capital expenditure within $1.4 to $1.6 billion annually, predominantly supporting investments in the smoke-free product business.
Management stated this priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. Capital expenditures have been consistently forecasted within the $1.4 to $1.6 billion range, predominantly supporting the smoke-free business. This is consistent with prior years' actuals and guidance, reflecting disciplined capital allocation focused on growth areas. The trajectory is stable and aligned with management's stated capital expenditure discipline.
“Capital expenditures of $1.4 to $1.6 billion, predominantly supporting the smoke-free business.”
“Capital expenditures of $1.4 to $1.6 billion, predominantly supporting the smoke-free business.”
“Capital expenditures of around $1.6 billion, almost entirely due to investments supporting the smoke-free business.”
“Capital expenditures of around $1.6 billion, almost entirely due to investments supporting the smoke-free business.”
“Capital expenditures of around $1.6 billion, almost entirely due to investments supporting the smoke-free business.”
“Capital expenditures of around $1.5 billion, including further investments in ZYN capacity in the U.S.”
Breaks if: organic net revenue growth falls below 4% in 2026-FY
Breaks if: YoY smoke-free shipment volume growth falls below 10% in 2026-FY
Continue expanding and innovating the smoke-free product portfolio including IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV to drive volume, revenue, and market share growth globally.
Stated as a priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. The smoke-free business shipment volume grew from 14.4% in 2025-Q1 to 7.5% in 2026-Q2, with IQOS maintaining around 75% volume share in 2026-Q2. ZYN expanded from 44 markets in 2025-Q1 to 60 markets in 2026-Q2, and VEEV shipments increased by 55.1% in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows consistent delivery of volume and market expansion aligned with management's stated growth focus.
“Smoke-free business shipment volume up 7.5%, IQOS leading with ~75% volume share, ZYN in 60 markets, VEEV shipments up 55.1%.”
“Smoke-free business net revenue growth 12.4%, IQOS surpassing Marlboro, ZYN shipments growing 10%, VEEV profitable growth.”
“Smoke-free business shipment volumes up 12.8%, IQOS volume share ~76%, ZYN in 55 markets, VEEV doubled shipments.”
“Smoke-free business shipment volumes up 16.6%, IQOS volume share ~76%, ZYN growing 39% offtake, VEEV shipment volumes up 91%.”
“Smoke-free business shipment volumes up 11.8%, IQOS volume share ~76%, ZYN offtake growth ~36%, VEEV shipments doubled.”
“Smoke-free business shipment volumes up 14.4%, IQOS volume share ~77%, ZYN shipments exceeded 200 million cans, VEEV shipments more than doubled.”
Overall, PM's performance and management execution are critical for the next few years. Not investment advice.