Philip Morris International (PM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-07-07
$187.75+1.62%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $187.75. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $188 PM trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median — but our blended $166 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $168–$200. Note: our $166 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($168–$200). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $200 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$168.00 – $200.00 (median $190.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 61% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 14.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.53/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $190.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $164.47 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $153.20 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $91.13 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $146.99 | 19.3 | 7.63 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $159.00 | 16.9 | 11.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $139.16 | 20.3 | 6.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $150.36 | 19.3 | 7.81 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $45.27 | 1.7 | 26.62 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $282.82 | 36.2 | 7.81 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $172.92 | 22.1 | 7.81 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $148.88 | 19.3 | 7.73 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $201.24 | 19.3 | 10.45 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $195.23 | 20.3 | 9.60 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $196.75 | 19.3 | 10.22 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $56.42 | 1.7 | 33.17 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $370.09 | 36.2 | 10.22 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $226.27 | 22.1 | 10.22 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $248.12 | 19.3 | 12.89 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $244.65 | 20.3 | 12.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $227.15 | 19.3 | 11.80 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $65.13 | 1.7 | 38.30 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $427.27 | 36.2 | 11.80 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $261.23 | 22.1 | 11.80 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.