Philip Morris International (PM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
$182.53-1.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PM
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $183 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $185 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $182–$225. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $215.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $203.26 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $302.21 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $87.23 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$182.00 – $225.00 (median $215.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-29
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 63% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 27.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.69/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $110.39 |
| 11.7 |
| 11.81 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $129.76 | 15.9 | 8.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $140.40 | 15.8 | 8.89 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $23.28 | 0.9 | 27.27 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $172.89 | 21.3 | 8.10 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $186.13 | 23.0 | 8.10 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $137.95 | 16.8 | 8.20 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $197.35 | 15.9 | 12.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $159.57 | 15.8 | 10.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $27.77 | 0.9 | 32.53 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $215.57 | 21.3 | 10.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $232.07 | 23.0 | 10.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $260.99 | 15.9 | 16.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $178.98 | 15.8 | 11.33 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $31.15 | 0.9 | 36.49 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $241.80 | 21.3 | 11.33 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $260.31 | 23.0 | 11.33 | Analyst | high |