Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put RWT beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Mortgage REITs is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 28% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 55% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskRedwood Trust's 2027 C-corp shift has to succeed to justify the price. The company plans to unlock $0.73 to $0.77 in book value. Revenue growth is not accelerating to support this structural change. The latest quarter missed estimates by 109.1%. RWT trades at 4x earnings versus a 10x peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast. Management is running behind on a stated commitment. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 50%. Peer multiples imply a price about 55% above where it trades. This read is provisional. The thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. RWT is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 9 analysts currently covering RWT (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for RWT in the last 4 months.
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Compare RWT with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RWT Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Mortgage REITs — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put RWT next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Maintain dividend per share at $0.18
90% distribution cut directly violates dividend maintenance objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $3.25
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $3.25.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Threatens: Transition to C-corporation structure in 2027
Analyst cut target citing REIT conversion concerns.

Threatens: Maintain dividend per share at $0.18
Dividend cut to $0.02 violates $0.18 objective.

Advances: Maintain dividend per share at $0.18
C-corp shift directly supports dividend sustainability and value unlock.

Threatens: Expand mortgage banking production
Q3 earnings miss signals operational headwinds for mortgage production.

Advances: Announce and execute share buyback program
CEO's stock purchase signals confidence in company value.

Investor pressure could disrupt management's strategic objectives.

Lowered price target indicates concerns about legacy portfolio performance.
