Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.25+4.66%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RWT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -67.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RWT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition;
Why it matters: Production topped $8 billion in each of the prior two quarters. Another strong quarter would show that growth held despite sharp moves in Treasury rates.
Supportive ifQ3 results show mortgage production above $8 billion. Gross margins are within the company’s target ranges.
Worry ifQ3 production falls below $8 billion, or gross margins move below the target range.
Why it matters: Book value fell from $7.12 to $6.90 in Q2. Another drop would show more pressure on shareholder value, even if loan sales stay strong.
Worry ifQ3 results show GAAP book value below $6.90 per common share.
Less concerning ifQ3 results show GAAP book value at or above $6.90 per common share.
Why it matters: The venture can help Redwood fund more loans with less company capital. Its use can show whether this plan is helping the company grow.
Supportive ifQ3 results show loans bought through the venture, and Redwood reports progress toward using its up to $8 billion buying power.
Worry ifQ3 results show no loans bought through the venture, or management reports a delay or reduced buying power.
Why it matters: The company linked AI tools to lower work time and costs. More savings would show the gains are continuing; a drop would suggest progress has stalled.
Supportive ifRedwood reports more than 23,600 hours of annual time savings from 2026 AI efforts, above the Q2 level.
Worry ifRedwood reports 23,600 hours or less in annual time savings, or reports that savings fell from Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,480 loss on $10,000 · 54.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.