Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.51+0.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RWT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -60.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RWT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition;
Why it matters: Better net income would show improved operations. This could help investors feel more confident and support the stock.
Supportive ifNet income turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Details about the joint venture may show growth chances and market position.
Watch forAnnouncement of partners or terms for the strategic joint venture.
Also watch forNo further details or a cancellation of the joint venture plans.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows confidence in cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a Q3 dividend at or above $0.18 per share.
Worry ifA dividend cut or suspension has been announced.
Why it matters: A drop in book value may mean financial problems. Investors will look for recovery signs.
Worry ifGAAP book value per share declines more than 3% from $6.90.
Less concerning ifGAAP book value per share increases or remains stable.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $342 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,158 loss on $10,000 · 31.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A bigger drop could show serious problems in asset values and financial health.
Worry ifGAAP book value drops more than 3% from Q1 2026. This shows asset value issues.
Less concerning ifGAAP book value drops less than 1%. This suggests asset values are stable.
Why it matters: The joint venture could enhance growth by increasing loan volume and market reach.
Supportive ifThe joint venture starts giving loans. This shows the plans are working well.
Worry ifNo loans were given to the joint venture in Q3. This suggests delays in execution.
Why it matters: The buyback shows trust in the company's value and how it uses its money.
Supportive ifA public announcement confirming the start of the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo news or delays in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: This joint venture could boost Redwood's buying power and growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the start of loan contributions to the joint venture in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement or delay in contributions to the joint venture beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This range shows the company is stable even when the market is changing.
Watch forQ3 economic return on book value falls within -1.0% to 1.0%, showing resilience.
Also watch forQ3 economic return on book value is below -1.0%. This shows possible financial stress.
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.18 dividend per share shows financial health. A change could affect investor feelings.
Watch forRedwood maintains the $0.18 dividend per share in Q3 2026.
Also watch forRedwood lowers the dividend per share below $0.18 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Contributions to the new joint venture could signal Redwood's growth strategy is on track. This is key for scaling operations.
Supportive ifRedwood contributes loans to the joint venture as planned in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo loans are contributed to the joint venture by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The joint venture could enhance market position and drive future growth.
Supportive ifRedwood Trust announces a big partnership or investment for the joint venture.
Worry ifNo updates or progress reported on the joint venture in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces a $0.18 dividend for Q3 2026. This shows commitment to returns.
Worry ifThe company lowers the dividend below $0.18. This may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: Keeping high production levels is important for Redwood's growth and profits.
Supportive ifQ3 mortgage banking production is over $8 billion. This shows strong business momentum.
Worry ifQ3 mortgage banking production is under $7 billion. This suggests a possible slowdown.
Why it matters: The buyback could help shareholders. It shows confidence in the company's finances.
Supportive ifRedwood Trust completes the buyback of at least $50 million worth of shares.
Worry ifRedwood Trust delays or cancels the buyback program.
Why it matters: The joint venture could boost Redwood's mortgage banking work and profits. It may have buying power of up to $8 billion.
Supportive ifThe company begins contributing loans to the Aspire joint venture in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe joint venture launch is delayed or does not occur as planned.
Why it matters: Higher production shows strong demand. It also shows good management in a changing market.
Supportive ifMortgage banking work goes over $8.5 billion in any quarter.
Worry ifMortgage banking production falls below $8 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.18 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend below $0.18 per share.