Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.11-4.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.02 → 0.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RWT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete $125 million senior notes offering and execute share buybacks | It also raised $125 million in senior notes to support buybacks. | Intact | Senior notes offering not completed or buybacks halted by 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RWT is a higher-risk, rate-sensitive mortgage business with fragile earnings quality, rather than a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: operating priorities are progressing, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort.
The evidence describes RWT as cheap versus peers, but also tags expectations as stretched, with low confidence in the valuation model. The expectations gap is modest, so the peer discount does not by itself resolve the tension between valuation and fragile execution.
Near term, mortgage banking production growth and the institutional joint venture support the operating plan; production exceeded $8 billion in 2026-Q2. The quarterly dividend has remained at $0.18, though its status is mixed, and the October earnings miss plus elevated miss risk make the next results important. The company’s quality measure improved, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether mortgage production growth can continue while profitability is maintained, and whether the joint venture helps scale the platform. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate businesses, while a guidance cut or weakness among sector peers could remove support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, RWT has credible operating initiatives but a fragile earnings profile and meaningful near-term execution risks. The thesis remains uncertain until results show that growth can translate into durable performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps paying a $0.18 quarterly dividend. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.18 in any quarter through 2026-Q2 |
Dividend per share: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=0.18 USD per share per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. May 7, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Mortgage banking production volume over $8 billion in 2026-Q2 | Redwood Trust grew mortgage banking volume to over $8 billion in Q2 2026. | Intact | Mortgage banking volume falls below 6.8 billion USD in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We generated more than $8 billion of mortgage banking production while continuing to prioritize profitability over headline volume.” “7. Lock volume represents loans identified for purchase from loan sellers.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Joint venture targets purchasing up to $8 billion prime jumbo loans | It formed a joint venture targeting $8 billion in prime jumbo loans. | Intact | Joint venture fails to reach meaningful loan purchases by 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.03 → $0.96 · observed estimates
$0.42B → $0.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.03 | $418,968,118 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.04 | $192,040,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.04 | $192,040,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.04 | $192,040,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.03 | $415,848,118 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.03 | $174,001,600 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.03 | $162,877,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.03 | $162,877,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.03 | $162,877,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.03 | $162,877,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.03 | $162,877,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.03 | $162,877,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.03 | $162,877,250 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.02 | $162,877,250 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.02 | $401,919,408 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.02 | $397,197,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.00 | $387,401,827 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.00 | $387,401,827 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.99 | $385,401,827 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.99 | $385,401,827 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.99 | $385,401,827 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.99 | $385,401,827 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.99 | $385,401,827 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.99 | $385,401,827 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.99 | $385,401,827 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.99 | $385,401,827 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.97 | $380,266,920 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.97 | $375,000,253 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.97 | $375,000,253 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.97 | $375,000,253 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.97 | $375,000,253 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.96 | $373,483,586 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.