Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.51+0.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RWT
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.51 RWT trades at 4.9× p/e, below its 9.7× p/e peer median. Our $8.12 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $5.50–$6.50. Note: our $8.12 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($5.50–$6.50). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $6.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $12.09 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $12.42 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $1.16 | 9.7 | 0.12 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$5.50 – $6.50 (median $6.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-08-21
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $19.28 |
| 1.8 |
| 10.92 |
| TTM |
| high |
| PEG | 12M | $3.73 | 4.1 | 0.92 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $8.53 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $8.80 | 9.7 | 0.90 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1.17 | 1.8 | 0.66 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $0.81 | 4.1 | 0.20 | Analyst | medium |