SLM Corp (SLM)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.08+2.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Share repurchases of at least $300 million in 2026-Q1: metric not reported.
SLM is buying back shares with $300 million repurchased in Q1 2026. The company raised its EPS guidance to about $3.15 for 2026. Debt issuance of $500 million supports capital needs. The stock trades cheap with a PE of 6.95 versus peers at 10.56.
Revenue is expected to fall about 32% next year. The company faces risks from litigation and officer retirements. Dividend payout is stable but progress is mixed. These could hurt earnings and share price.
The market prices in about 32% revenue decline and values the stock 10% below our fair value. Our fair value aligns with the Street median. We see potential if earnings and buybacks hold firm.
Breaks if: share repurchases fall below $300 million in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: Debt issuance falls below $500 million in 2026-Q2
Dividend falls below $0.13 per share quarterly
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity with a focus on stabilizing earnings and growth in private education loan originations. The current thesis state is cautious, given recent mixed signals and a shift in confidence from high to medium.
The market appears to be pricing in a low level of execution quality, suggesting some fragility in performance. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that some positive developments may not yet be fully reflected.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued growth in private education loan originations, supported by management's focus on cost discipline. However, there are risks related to credit performance, as net charge-offs have increased slightly, indicating potential pressure.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express, which could influence SLM's momentum. Additionally, any negative guidance from SLM could lead to a significant downward adjustment in expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has put pressure on the thesis. This miss indicates potential challenges in maintaining growth and profitability. The overall market backdrop has also shifted, with a recent decline in the broader market.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $3.0 for 2026
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SLM's performance will depend on its ability to navigate credit challenges while capitalizing on sector trends. Not investment advice.